There is talk of another tropical system possibly heading across the Gulf of Mexico and into the southeastern US. Let’s look at the odds, and fortunately, several factors that work against a hurricane.

Is another hurricane possible in late November? The simple answer is yes, we are still in hurricane season.

However, as we approach the end of hurricane season, all of the factors that could produce a major hurricane a month to six weeks ago are now on hold.

The ocean water is somewhat colder, some areas cold enough not to withstand a hurricane. Another important factor is the upper-level winds that are increasing in speed over the continental US. Remember – tropical systems and hurricanes are very delicate storms. They are big and powerful storms if left to their own devices. But if another weather system interacts with the hurricane, or if the updraft jetstream barely cuts the outside of the hurricane, a weakening will occur.

So a hurricane can still happen, but it has to have everything go its way to survive.

That’s good news, but there’s still a system to watch for a few days. The National Hurricane Center has named this potential storm Tropical Cyclone Nineteen. If the system actually became a named storm, it would be Sara.

Here’s what the National Hurricane Center has to offer for a five-day fading storm track.

Yesterday there was a lot of noise from the weather alarmist crowd. The best models did have solutions from tropical storm strength to major hurricane strength and hitting the west coast of Florida. Today, the same patterns seem more logical, with November’s bullish factors knocking the storm system down into a vigorous storm system, but not a hurricane. Makes sense to me as there is too much upwind wind shear to let a hurricane do it’s own thing.

I will say that it is definitely a situation that we need to keep an eye on. With the current model, it looks like this could become a hybrid system with part tropical features and part strong northwest cold front. This type of weather situation can lead to several hours of strong to severe thunderstorms with strong winds and isolated tornadoes.

Most data agree that next Wednesday is the period to watch.

Here’s the latest European model forecast as of 7:00 a.m. Wednesday, November 13. Note that the red area is the gusty wind area of ​​this possible tropical system or hybrid system.

Remember – this far back in time, we don’t focus on the specifics of placement, exact timing, and strength of gusts. We just focus on something to watch and keep in our mind.

But as a meteorologist of 35 years, I can tell you that there are two things that make me think that a major hurricane is not likely, and maybe not even possible.

The first is upper-level wind shear. Here is a wind forecast at 30,000 feet up at that time. Stronger southeasterly winds will not allow a hurricane to build a strong circulation.

Ocean surface temperatures have also cooled. Most of the Gulf of Mexico still has a surface water temperature that would support a hurricane, but very marginally so.

Here are the most current surface water temperatures. Remember that a hurricane needs water at least 80 degrees. The water temperature chart below shows 25 degrees C to 27 degrees C west of the Florida coast. This is 77 degrees F to 80 degrees F. Hurricanes will weaken considerably over this cooler water.

For now you know there is a system to watch around next Wednesday. Be aware that a lot of forecast track and power changes could still occur. In my mind, most of these changes should be on the slimming side.

The best place to stay up to date with official hurricane expert forecasts is at National Hurricane Center website. If you need an update from me, you can find it Here.