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Tropical Storm Sara could form into a hurricane

Online Niel November 14, 2024

Another storm could hit Florida by the middle of next week as a Category 3 hurricane the last punch in a relentless Atlantic hurricane season which claimed at least 326 lives and caused $120 billion in damage.

Some forecast models say the storm, to be named Sara, will reach wind speeds of more than 111 mph and bring catastrophic flooding and storm surge watches to Central America by this weekend. The Gulf Coast has already had five hurricane paths this hurricane season.

National Hurricane Center meteorologists say the storm is now “Potential Tropical Cyclone 18,” a tropical wave moving west into the Caribbean. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday.

As of 4 p.m. Wednesday, the hurricane center said the system was centered about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras. The government of Honduras has issued a hurricane warning and Nicaragua has issued a tropical storm warning.

The storm is expected to drop up to 30 centimeters of rain over northern Honduras, the hurricane center said.

Some of the computer models indicate that Sara could become a major hurricane that threatens the Florida coast, although it is still “too early to determine what impact the system may have on the Gulf of Mexico, Florida and Cuba,” the center said in an update on the 16 :00. .

The center’s initial forecast puts a tropical storm off the coast of Honduras on Friday, where it could linger for several days, while a tropical storm will make landfall in Belize on Monday. Heavy rain is forecast in Jamaica for the next day and in Central America into early next week.

AccuWeather, a private weather service, said in a forecast Wednesday afternoon that it expects the storm to strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane over the weekend.

“Accuesta hurricane experts are increasingly concerned about the potential for a catastrophic, life-threatening flooding disaster in parts of Central America, particularly near steep terrain in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua,” said Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter in forecasting. “These communities are particularly vulnerable to flooding, as tragically seen in the major flood disasters in this area in modern times, including Hurricane Mitch in 1998, which tragically claimed more than 11,000 lives, and the devastating floods from Hurricane Eta and Iota in 2020.”

The storm’s interaction with Central America and other surrounding weather patterns will determine the intensity and final destination of the system. Because the system is still forming, without a well-defined center, the average forecast path uncertainty is higher than normal, the center said.

The storm could take advantage of “some unusually favorable late-season conditions” to strengthen by early next week,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert at WPLG-TV in South Florida. in his daily update on Tuesday.

Water temperatures in the Caribbean are warmer than normal, but temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have been at a record high this week, according to the data. graphs of ocean heat content maintained by Brian McNoldy, senior research fellow at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School. Warm water helps fuel hurricanes.

Lowry and other forecasters say two key issues will determine whether the disturbance could threaten the US. By early next week, the system is expected to begin moving slowly northwest, but exactly when it turns could make a difference in both the strength and location of the system. .

“If a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the western Caribbean, the track is likely to be heavily influenced by the position of a high-pressure dome along the South Atlantic coast of the United States,” AccuWeather said Tuesday.

For now, the chaotic nature of the model tracks points to “high uncertainty” in the forecast, Lowry said. If the storm moves over Central America or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, the interaction could weaken. However, he said, if it remains offshore in the Caribbean, there is an increasing chance that it will strengthen and be driven into the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

Given the environmental conditions in the region, several models used to forecast potential intensity suggest a potential hurricane could reach Category 3 status with winds in excess of 111 mph, and one suggests it could reach Category 3 status 4, according to the website. Tropicaltidbits.com, maintained by meteorologist Levi Cowan.

If a sixth hurricane were to make landfall along the Gulf of Mexico, it would tie the 1886 record for most landfalls in one season on the US Gulf Coast, McNoldy posted on social media Tuesday. At five so far this season, 2024 is tied with 2005 and 2020 for the second-most Gulf hurricanes on record in a season.

Hurricanes in November are quite unusual. Only three hurricanes have previously hit the US or made landfall in November, one each in 1861 and 1935, and Hurricane Kate in 1985. according to NOAA records.

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A busy 2024 hurricane season

So far, 2024 is the 11th most active season in terms of hurricane days and accumulated cyclone energy since meteorologists began observing hurricanes by satellite in 1966, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher at the University of State of Colorado. The Cyclone Energy Index calculates the total energy of a season based on the storm frequency and maximum wind speed of each hurricane over its lifetime.

Among the most active seasons are 2005 and 2020, the two years the hurricane center exhausted its first roster and switched to a reserve roster, according to Klotzbach. Seven of the most active seasons have occurred this century.

The 2024 season matched the preseason forecasts of both NOAA and Colorado State University for hurricanes and major hurricanes quite well. Only named storms are behind under those seasonal outlooks. Although the season got off to a busy start, including a record Beryl, a lull in August caught forecasters by surprise, but 12 named storms have developed since early September.