ORLANDO, Fla. – Spaghetti models are used to predict the possible paths of tropical storms or hurricanes.

When you see a bunch of lines coming out of the center of a storm on a weather map, those are spaghetti patterns. The lines represent the different forecast models and can give us an idea of ​​where the storm might go.

If the lines are grouped together, it means that confidence is higher in the forecast; if they are widespread, it means there is more uncertainty about the storm’s path.

The term “spaghetti patterns” comes from the way the lines look like strands of cooked spaghetti noodles. However, these models only show where the center of the storm might go, not how strong the storm will be or what kind of weather it will bring (such as rain or wind).

They are useful for understanding the possible path, but do not provide information about the size, intensity, or potential impacts of the storm, such as flooding, storm surge, or the threat of tornadoes.

Once a tropical system becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, official forecasts are issued by agencies, such as the National Hurricane Center, based on data from various models.

These official forecasts could be used for planning because the spaghetti models show how much the models agree or disagree about the storm’s path.

Some of the most popular spaghetti patterns include:

• AVNO: National Weather Service (NWS) / American Global Forecast System (GFS)

• BAMS: Shallow Layer Beta and Advection Model (NHC)

• BAMM: beta mean layer and advection model (NHC)

• BAMD: Deep Layer Beta and Advection Model (NHC)

• ECM: European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (EURO)

• HWRF: Hurricane Weather Forecast and Research Model

• CMC: Canadian Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM).

• OFCL: The National Hurricane Center’s official forecast

• TABM – Trajectory and Beta Model, medium layer (NHC)

• TABD – Trajectory and Beta Model, deep layer (NHC)

Each computer model uses current data, a different set of mathematical equations, statistics, and the laws of physics to predict the storm’s path, but none of them provide a complete picture of the storm’s potential impact.

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