As the world watched the result US presidential election on November 5, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made his own headlines when he resigned Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

Netanyahu claimed Gallant’s dismissal was due to an erosion of trust between the two. But Israeli analysts and Gallant himself say the reason is related to disagreements regarding ultra-orthodox military servicethe Gaza hostage situation and an official investigation into the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack.

“Since October 7, Gallant has been a consistent thorn in Netanyahu’s side when it comes to his handling of the war,” said Alex Lederman of the Israel Policy Forum, an American-Jewish organization that promotes a two-state solution for Palestine and Israel. The new Arab.

Despite being a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, Gallant often challenged the prime minister on numerous issues even before the war. Netanyahu first fired Gallant in March 2023 over the defense minister’s opposition to the government’s plans for a judicial review. Netanyahu reversed the move after widespread public outcry.

“Gallant is much more sensitive to the priorities of the security establishment, who were more interested in prioritizing bringing the hostages home, while Netanyahu feels political pressure not to from the far right, not wanting to concede anything to Hamas,” Lederman added. .

This week, Netanyahu is preparing to revive a controversial bill exempting ultra-Orthodox Jews from conscription, which Gallant opposed. However, Netanyahu believes the passage of this law is necessary to hold together his fragile coalition, which is based on Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) members. Reports indicated that one of Netanyahu’s top advisers informed coalition leaders that Gallant’s dismissal gives the green light for the bill to move forward.

Gallant’s calls for a hostage agreement-ceasefire as well as a state commission of inquiry into the Hamas attack, looking specifically at government failures that allowed such an attack, were also cited as Netanyahu’s reason for firing the defense chief.

However, analysts also speculated that there was an even more sinister explanation behind Netanyahu’s decision. On the day Gallant was fired, the news broke about an investigation into suspicions that the minutes of the Prime Minister’s security meetings were falsified. This development adds to counting probes in the conduct of Netanyahu’s staff throughout the war.

“Firing Gallant was also a very good way to divert public and media attention from these investigations,” said Dr. Ilana Shpaizman, political studies lecturer at Bar Ilan University. TNA.

“One thing Netanyahu does very well is play with the agenda and shift his focus to the issues he wants people to think about and away from the issues he doesn’t want people to think about.”

But it’s not just Gallant who is losing his job. Other government officials are also on the chopping block, inclusive Israel’s chief of military staff, the head of the security agency and the attorney general – all considered dangerous to Netanyahu’s leadership.

“Gallant’s sacking was both a message he wanted to send to potential dissenting voices within the coalition to try to silence any dissent within the government that might arise,” Lederman said.

Netanyahu replaced Gallant with Israel Katzthe former Israeli foreign minister and a known Netanyahu ally. Although Katz served in Israel’s security cabinet during the war, he has not held a military or defense position since completing his military service in 1977.

“Having a defense minister who is very loyal to Netanyahu and doesn’t have these deep ties to the security establishment that Gallant had will put Netanyahu in a better position to fire additional heads of security agencies Lederman explained.

New defense minister, same war

The news sent shockwaves through Israel, with hundreds of thousands of people taking to the streets in protest, but what does this sudden change mean for Israeli policy in the Middle East and his wars in Gaza and Lebanon?

Shpaizman explained that Katz is just a front, allowing Netanyahu to be the sole decider.

“What is happening is that Netanyahu becomes the only person who will make decisions about the war,” Shpaizman said.

On the ground, Gallant’s dismissal deepened the Israeli public’s distrust of Netanyahu, explained Dr. Nimrod Goren, senior fellow for Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute.

“The argument that Netanyahu is acting in the name of political survival and thereby endangering the national interest is now up,” Goren said. “Gallant is considered by the Israeli public and the families of the hostages to be a responsible, experienced guy within the coalition and even with the US, the most important engagement partner.”

While Israeli analysts point out that Netanyahu’s actions further erode democracy, Palestinian-Dutch Middle East analyst Mouin Rabbani noted that Gallant’s firing may shake up Israel’s domestic policies, but the way the war is being handled is unlikely to change.

“You could argue that there will be an indirect impact, if the Orthodox rise up in rebellion or if the security establishment starts to be uncooperative, but those scenarios are remote,” Rabbani said.

“If you really look at the most important reasons why Gallant was fired, it had very little to do with the conduct of the war.”

So while this change in personnel certainly unsettled Israeli society, for the Palestinians and the Lebanese, a change in the defense system does not necessarily mean a real change.

Jessica Buxbaum is a Jerusalem-based journalist covering Palestine and Israel. Her work has been featured in Middle East Eye, The National and Gulf News

Follow her on Twitter: @jess_buxbaum