There is always a reason why political analysts like me would comment on politics in other countries. Those who would say we have no business commenting on the outcome of a US election won by a convicted felon, which by the way is not a derogatory statement but a statement of fact, simply have no idea about the nature of political commentary . And it’s not even accurate to say that only those with material interests, such as US business activities, should have the right to comment.

We political analysts may not make millions of US dollars, but we do make some money from our comments, so it’s actually our business if we can call it picking minds and getting paid some fees for practicing a job like I get paid for each article. I write in this space.

These unknowns who are now singing about their business activities in the US may, however, be in for a rude awakening soon. After all, if they are foreign products or service providers who are not US citizens, then the goods or services they provide are considered “imported” in the eyes of the MAGA Republicans, and their half-brother Trump has promised to impose tariffs on all imports, which would probably include both goods and services. They may realize that their customers will soon look for cheaper suppliers, given that due to the tariffs imposed, their products and services will cost more. Their concern about the US dollars they earn may dissolve in the face of reduced dollar earnings, that is, if they still have customers to begin with.

Imposing tariffs on imports is just one of many policies the incoming Trump administration plans to implement. We’ve already discussed the implications of Trump’s draconian immigration policy, with one senator-elect even salivating at the thought of mass deporting 15 million people, which would likely include around 400,000 undocumented Filipinos.

There is also the possibility that Trump may impose restrictions on the outsourcing of business processing operations (BPO). If this happens, then our BPO industry will definitely get a significant impact.

There are also important political ramifications. Trump’s second presidency is expected to be more isolationist and aggressive. He is pro-Russian and pro-Putin, which will have significant implications for the war in Ukraine. Already, there is talk that Trump will use his aid to Ukraine as a carrot on a stick, where he will force Ukraine to not only give up its dream of becoming a NATO member, but to cede land that is now occupied by Putin’s Russia. .

Those Arab Americans who voted for Trump or against Kamala Harris as a protest against what they perceive as the Biden administration’s misguided policy toward Gaza and the Palestinians will likely now face the specter of deportation to a homeland that could be just annexed by Israel. Trump is not in favor of a two-state solution. The way Arab-Americans voted in the last election is a classic case of voting against their interests simply because they are not happy with the current policy, even though the alternative they are voting for or offering will be even worse. This is a clear case of cutting off your nose to spite your face.

We are not sure how Trump will handle the West Philippine Sea. It is easy for US diplomats in Manila to promise that nothing will change, but this is not a realistic proposition. Although Trump is perceived to be more hostile to China, there is no assurance that the Philippines will remain high on his foreign policy agenda. It is even possible that he will use us as leverage with China, forcing us to make certain concessions favorable to Chinese and US interests, but certainly against our own interests.

There is, however, a grounded strand in Trump’s isolationist, jingoistic, America-first politics. He will turn the US into a red flag, an uncertainty that should be avoided. The US will become an economic and political liability, which will then force countries to recalibrate and adopt a more independent foreign policy.

In the case of the Philippines, President Ferdinand R. Marcos was indeed on the right track when he expanded our alliances over the West Philippine Sea (WPS) to surpass the US. The Philippines and the world should move in the direction of looking elsewhere for economic, political and strategic alliances and stop relying on the US. While Americans would still like to think they have the greatest country in the world, the community of states should realize that the national interests of sovereign states cannot be held hostage by a country whose majority voters approve of their government be toxic on the inside. A country that was born from waves of migration but now treats its migrants as if they were infectious diseases can never be a stable and reliable ally. If they can’t even treat their own citizens right, how can they even care about the citizens of other countries, including the Philippines?

Trump’s triumph, seen in the emerging reality of Trump’s America, should be a trigger for countries to recalibrate their foreign policies, networks and alliances. Domestically, we have already seen the growing presence of other trade and political allies, from the European Union to Australia, Canada, India and Japan. Even in the field of scholarship, America is no longer the only country to which we send our scholars for advanced studies and where they engage in research collaborations.

Trump’s mantra was to “make America great again.” He will push for sweeping changes that can only make America irrelevant and far from great, a place where dreams no longer come true, but where they can die.

Fortunately, there are many ways the world and the Philippines can survive Trump’s America.