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What’s up with Donald Trump’s criminal conviction? Here are a few ways it could go
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What’s up with Donald Trump’s criminal conviction? Here are a few ways it could go

NEW YORKof Donald Trump election victory created a deep conundrum for the judge overseeing his criminal case in New York. Can he go ahead and condemn the president-elect, or could doing so impede Trump’s constitutional responsibility to lead the nation?

Court documents released Tuesday revealed that Judge Juan M. Merchan actually did put the case on hold until at least Nov. 19, while he and lawyers on both sides discuss what should happen next. Trump’s sentencing had been tentatively scheduled for November 26.

Trump’s lawyers are urging Merchan to act “in the interest of justice” and overturn the verdict, the first criminal conviction of a former and now future US president.

Manhattan prosecutors told Merchan they want to find a way forward that balances the “competing interests” of the jury’s verdict and Trump’s responsibilities as president.

Here are some scenarios for what could happen next:

Wait until Trump is out of office

If Merchan wants to preserve the verdict without disrupting Trump’s presidency, he could choose to delay sentencing until the president-elect leaves office in 2029.

Trump would be 82 at the end of his second term and more than a decade removed from the events at the heart of the case.

Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records involves his efforts to conceal a $130,000 payment during his 2016 presidential campaign to dispel claims by porn star Stormy Daniels that she had sex with him years earlier. then, which he denies.

If he chooses to wait, Merchan may not be on the bench until then. His current term ends before Trump is scheduled to leave office.

Grant Trump’s immunity request

Another way Merchan could escape the case is by accepting Trump’s earlier request to overturn the verdict because of a US Supreme Court decision in July, which gave presidents broad immunity from prosecution.

The judge said he would issue a ruling on Tuesday, but that was before Trump’s election victory changed the schedule.

The High Court ruling gives former presidents immunity from prosecution for official records and bars prosecutors from using evidence of official records in an attempt to prove that their personal conduct violated the law.

Trump’s lawyers say prosecutors “tainted” the case with testimony about his first term and other evidence that should not have been allowed. Prosecutors said the decision provided “no basis to disturb the jury’s verdict.”

The judge could order a new trial — which could take place after Trump leaves office — or dismiss the indictment entirely.

Wait until a federal court decides

Merchan may choose to delay matters until the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals rules on Trump’s earlier request to move the case from state court to federal court.

Trump’s lawyers appealed a Manhattan federal judge’s decision to deny the transfer. Their argument: Trump’s case belongs in federal court because, as a former president, he has the right to assert immunity and seek impeachment.

Still, waiting for the appeals court’s decision could trigger further delays down the road. The court gave prosecutors until January 13 to respond to Trump’s appeal. This was a week before he was sworn into office. Once Trump gets to the White House, his legal team could bring new arguments around presidential immunity.

Case dismissed

Merchan could end the case immediately by overturning Trump’s conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records and dropping the indictment.

That would mean no sentence or punishment, sparing the president-elect the possibility of prison or other punishment.

Trump’s lawyers insist that throwing out the case is the only way to “avoid unconstitutional impediments” to his ability to govern.

Prosecutors acknowledged the “unprecedented circumstances” in which Trump’s conviction collided with his election, but also said the jury’s verdict should stand.

Go to the sentence

Merchan could also opt for none of the above and proceed to sentencing — or at least try, barring an appeal from Trump’s lawyers.

George Mason University law professor Ilya Somin said if the case goes to sentencing “it could go either way.”

If there is, he said, “it probably won’t be a prison sentence.”

Trump’s charges carry a range of penalties, from a fine or probation to up to four years in prison.

“Any prison sentence would probably be blocked or suspended in some way,” but a lesser sentence “probably wouldn’t deter Trump to a significant degree,” Somin said.

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