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    • Tropical depression likely to form in the Caribbean Sea
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    Tropical depression likely to form in the Caribbean Sea

    Online Niel Posted on

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    Hurricane season isn’t over yet, and forecasters say a system in the Caribbean could strengthen into Hurricane Sara next week and travel an uncertain path into the Gulf of Mexico by late November.

    The National Hurricane Center said that since Tuesday he has been following a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea that produces “an area of ​​disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”

    Environmental conditions appear to favor wave development, according to the hurricane center, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next two to three days as the system slowly moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea.

    Named “Invest 99L” by the hurricane center as of Tuesday afternoon, the system is expected to begin a slow northwestward movement by early next week.

    “Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said, giving it a 90 percent chance of formation in the next seven days.

    Where will the system go? Could it become Hurricane Sara?

    Computer models show a wide range of possibilities for the system’s eventual strength and path, with some showing a full-blown Sara hurricane next week in the Gulf of Mexico.

    The wind shear that is destroying the storm will initially tend to prevent the northward movement of any developing feature in the Caribbean Sea, AccuWeather said. “However, the natural blocking mechanism could dissolve during the third week of the month and allow any tropical storm to move north, in which case interests in South Florida and the Keys may have to to remain vigilant,” he said. AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.

    Other potential paths include a slow run into Central America, while others point to an Atlantic path away from the US

    November Hurricane Forecast: The November hurricane forecast says more storms may occur after Rafael

    The November hurricane forecast says more storms could come after Rafael

    Although it’s late in the season, things look “good for another storm or two,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach told USA TODAY last week.

    Rafael made landfall in western Cuba last Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane, battering Artemisa province with sustained winds of up to 115 mph, knocking out the island’s power grid. As Rafael’s center moved toward the Gulf, parts of western Cuba were facing “a life-threatening storm surge” and flash flooding, the hurricane center said last Wednesday.

    It has already been an unusually active season, with 17 named storms forming, which is above the average of 14. Of the 17 storms, 11 were hurricanes, including catastrophic hurricanes Helene and Milton. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30, although storms occasionally form in December.

    “There are no ‘smoking gun’ signals right now, but the broad scale looks pretty favorable” for more tropical cyclone activity beyond Rafael, Klotzbach said.

    He said that global climate patterns such as The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) favors storm formation. The MJO is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, precipitation, winds and pressure that crosses the planet in the tropics and returns to its original starting point within 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It influences weather, including the formation of hurricanes, around the globe.

    Next of the storms in the Atlantic

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

    Gabe Hauari is a national news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow X @GabeHauari or email them at [email protected].

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