In this episode of WHAT THE TRUCK?!?, Dooner sits down with Thom Albrecht, Chief Revenue Officer at Reliance Partners, to break down the possible end of the trucking recession and what the trucking market will look like in 2025.

On a the previous episodeAlbrecht predicted the end of the freight recession in March 2025 and a turning point in the market. Gone would be the days when carriers barely made a profit and were just trying to get by.

In a later interview with Dooner after some new data emerged that called for an end to the freight recession, Albrect was right in his predictions.

“Pre-election, the market would have been close to equilibrium around October or November. My bet was March 2025. What the election did is just about guarantees that it will be March at the latest and we’ll be rolling from then on.”

The outcome of the presidential election has left all aspects of the supply chain in a waiting pattern, with the candidates having different agendas and ideologies. With the results in favor of Donald Trump, it left shippers with the popular option of withdrawing goods to avoid any financial impact of his threatened tariffs.

Albrecht says: “We’re seeing a lot of comments online about freight pulling back, and that’s partly because of the uncertainty around fares. In the short to medium term, there will be more freight, whether the recession ended today or early on the 25th. It’s about to die if it hasn’t died already.” Albrecht also said that “returning to equilibrium is not the same as ‘the switch being flipped.’ This reversal usually occurs 4-6 months after equilibrium has been reached.”

Shippers looking to take advantage of pull-forward freight remain overstocked and hope consumer sentiment changes. Consumers have shown lackluster demand over the past two years, which, according to Albrecht, “leaves companies to assess, do they worry about bringing in too much, and are there potential write-downs down the road?”

Albrecht uses an analogy for possible tariffs: “Here’s what’s really interesting about Trump is that he’s going to use both a carrot and a stick. The stick, of course, is the threat of tariffs. I think unlike past presidents where they would have some negotiations and then pay a tariff, I think he really intends to engage companies, nations around what is right. He’s going to be really aggressive in trying to use that as a stick to get (the goods) back here. The carrot is the lower potential corporate tax rate, which he applied at a rate of 15%, down from the federal corporate tax rate of 21%.”

As for what to expect in 2025, Albrecht says, “There’s a lot of exciting stuff out there that all bodes well for commoditization. What is preferable is faster economic growth that can absorb the cargo pull. If the underlying demand remains mediocre, then there could be another commodity hangover after the pull forward.”

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