close
close

Association-anemone

Bite-sized brilliance in every update

    • Next up Rafael. NOAA Tropical Outlook
    asane

    Next up Rafael. NOAA Tropical Outlook

    Online Niel Posted on

    play

    Tropical Storm Rafael is gradually weakening in the Gulf of Mexico with sustained winds now at 40 mph and is expected to become a low over the next 12 to 24 hours, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

    Rafael is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico by tonight, then turn south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

    ➤ Spaghetti patterns for Tropical Storm Rafael

    ➤ Weather alerts by text: Sign up to receive updates on current storms and weather events by location

    Wave action could lead to major and minor coastal flooding in the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida Peninsula, AccuWeather said the meteorologists.

    While Rafael does not pose a direct threat to land, storm surges are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast for the remainder of the weekend.

    Rafael hit western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday and it took out the power grid of the entire island before entering the Gulf of Mexico.

    Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the central Bahamas could bring heavy rain and strong winds as it moves over the islands tonight. This system has a low chance of development over the next week.

    Next called the storm of the Atlantic hurricane season it will be Sara.

    Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 10:00 a.m. EST Sunday, November 10:

    Tropical Storm Rafael: What you should know

    Special note about the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm’s center. It does not depict the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

    • Location: About 370 miles north-northwest of Progreso, Mexico
    • Maximum sustained winds: 40 mph
    • Present Movement: West-northwest at 3 mph
    • Minimum central pressure: 1003MB

    At 10 am EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was located near latitude 26.3 north, longitude 91.9 west.

    Rafael is moving north-northwest near 3 mph.

    The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico by tonight, then turn south and south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. A weakening is expected, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical low by Monday.

    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles from the center. A few hours ago, NOAA buoy 42001 over the central Gulf of Mexico recorded a sustained wind of 38 mph with a gust of 45 mph.

    Spaghetti patterns for Tropical Storm Rafael

    Special Note About Spaghetti Patterns: Illustrations include a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five best performing models to make its forecasts.

    ➤ Spaghetti patterns for Hurricane Rafael

    Impact in Florida from Tropical Storm Rafael

    Potential impacts for Florida from the National Hurricane Center:

    • The troughs generated by Rafael will continue to affect portions of the northern and western Gulf Coast through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    National Hurricane Center Map: What else is out there and how likely is it to strengthen?

    Systems currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

    Near the Bahamas: Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue near a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Some development of this system is possible before it moves into unfavorable environmental conditions later today.

    Regardless of development, locally heavy rain and strong winds are possible as it moves generally west across the Bahamas through tonight.

    • Chance of forming in 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of Formation in Seven Days: Low, 10 percent.

    What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?

    Hatched areas on a tropical map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome .

    The colors make it clearly visible how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.

    The National Hurricane Center generally does not issue a tropical advisory until there is a named storm, but there is an exception.

    “If a system is close to land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center will not wait before issuing an advisory, even if the system has not become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” said Rome.

    Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

    When does hurricane season end?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    Forecast of excessive precipitation

    Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via text

    What’s next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for ours special subscription offers here.

    This story has been updated to add new information.

    Online Niel
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like