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5 Reasons Trump Can Never Be Convicted in New York Hush Money Case
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5 Reasons Trump Can Never Be Convicted in New York Hush Money Case

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President-elect Donald Trump he already has a lot to be happy about when it comes to his electoral victorybut here’s another reason he can celebrate: his Criminal conviction in New York it may never appear.

The reasons range from the political firestorm a conviction could fuel to the new legal defenses he can mount as president-elect and later as president.

“The chances of him going to jail are zero at this point,” Mark Bederow, a New York criminal lawyer and former Manhattan district attorney, told USA TODAY. “He won’t sweep subways or push papers or do community service — it just became unbearable.”

Trump was convicted On May 30, 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up paying porn star Stormy Daniels to remain silent during the 2016 presidential campaign about an alleged sexual encounter between them. The possible punishment for crimes it could be nothing at all, or it could take various forms, such as community service or prison.

Just before Tuesday night, the real estate mogul had a possible way out of his sentence, which is currently still scheduled for November 26. Trump argued that some of the evidence the jury heard at his trial, which ended in late May, ran afoul of the presidential immunity ruling that the Supreme Court later ruled in July, and therefore the convictions should be now removed.

Manhattan Judge Juan Merchan is scheduled to rule on that argument on Tuesday, though Trump’s election means there could be new arguments for changing the proceedings. For example, Trump has tried twice before to take the case out of Merchan’s hands and into federal court, arguing that federal courts are better suited to address the legal issues it raises. That argument it most recently failed in Septemberbut he could make a new version of it based on his choice.

In a statement to USA TODAY, Trump campaign spokesman Steven Cheung said the American people elected Trump with “an overwhelming mandate to make America great again.”

“It is now abundantly clear that Americans want an immediate end to the harmonization of our justice system so that we can, as President Trump said in his historic victory speech, unite our country and work together for the betterment of our nation,” he Cheung said. .

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump also faced criminal charges in two federal cases and one Georgia state casealthough one of the federal cases has been on appeal since it was dismissed, and the Justice Department is weighing down both federal cases in light of Trump’s electoral victory.

Here are five reasons why Trump could never be convicted:

Reason #1: The Supreme Court gave Trump a potential lifeline

The Supreme Court’s July 1 ruling on presidential immunity in the case of Trump’s meddling in federal elections included a section that could overturn the New York convictions.

Five of the six Republican-appointed justices — all but Judge Amy Coney Barrett — have named a jury in a criminal case against a former president I cannot hear various forms of evidence about official presidential actions.

Trump has since argued that even though the hush-hush payment to Stormy Daniels and the falsified business records were not official presidential acts, some of the evidence presented to underpin both his indictment and his convictions contradicted the Supreme Court’s ruling. For example, Trump is objecting to the testimony of his former White House communications director, Hope Hicks, about events during his time as president.

Even if Trump fails to convince Merchan, he could ask an appeals court to review Merchan’s ruling before any sentencing takes place.

Mitchell Epner, a New York lawyer and former federal prosecutor in New Jersey, said it was “overwhelmingly likely” that the Nov. 26 sentencing date would be removed from the calendar based on the immunity issue, even if Judge Merchan rules against Trump.

He said the Supreme Court’s decision will likely give both Merchan and an appeals court a break on sentencing before an appeal is made. And Trump can point to other types of cases, such as cases against police officers, where appeals on immunity issues are typically allowed to play before trial.

Robert McWhirter, who is running for the Democratic nomination for Arizona Attorney General in 2022 and wrote a book on the US ConstitutionI wasn’t so sure. Below standard New York Rules of Criminal Proceduredefendants must file appeals within 30 days of sentencing.

“I would imagine there has to be a final sentence,” he said.

Reason #2: The political storm

Condemning Trump now that he is president-elect could also create a political firestorm.

That may not sound like a legal argument, but it’s still context that Merchan and appellate courts will consider, Bederow said.

“I think any judge can’t ignore the 800-pound gorilla in the room, which is that this guy was resoundingly voted to be the next president,” Bederow said. “If (Merchan) were to convict him, this country will be torn apart even more.”

Reason #3: Election-based legal roadblocks

Trump’s election victory gives him new legal arguments to fight the sentence. The Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity raised concerns about judicial proceedings interfering with the presidency. Court said a president cannot be prosecuted for official acts unless to do so would present “no danger of intrusion into the authority and functions of the Executive.”

Department of Justice POLICY also cautions against prosecuting a sitting president, although it is not binding on a New York state court.

Trump could argue that similar concerns apply to a state court convicting a president-elect or imposing a sentence that extends to him. January 20 presidential inauguration. The legal point is that under the US constitutional system, power is divided between the national government and the states, and the states cannot intrude beyond their sphere.

Legal experts I don’t agree on whether state court overreach concerns would come into play only after Trump is inaugurated, or whether Merchan or an appeals court would also entertain them at an earlier time.

Reason #4: A new process could face new problems

If Trump is vacated by his convictions and is protected from prosecution during his next presidency, Manhattan prosecutors could theoretically pursue a new trial later. But at that point, Trump could say his retrial violates his constitutional rights to a fair trial because the evidence and testimony have grown old.

“When defendants have such a long gap between their first trial and their second trial, they will often argue that they cannot be tried four years later because the witnesses’ memories will have faded, some people may have died”. Epner said.

Reason #5: Trump will get old

If Trump’s convictions stand the test of time, but he still faces conviction years from now, his age could also weigh in his favor. In an interview before Trump’s election victory, Catherine Christian, a former Manhattan prosecutor, told USA TODAY that even Trump’s current age would work to his advantage in a sentencing proceeding.

“He’s going to mess with his brand, but the man is 78 years old, and for someone who’s 78 years old with no (prior) criminal convictions, the court will look at that,” Christian said.

Trump would be 82 at the end of his upcoming four-year term.

“Even in cases where someone has become a fugitive, at a certain age, they simply won’t be punished, and Trump would be the furthest thing from a fugitive,” Epner said.

It all adds up to a significant advantage for the incumbent president.

“The leverage in this whole situation, the whole dynamic, has just changed dramatically since Tuesday,” Bederow said. “Trump is in a much stronger position, both in terms of public perception and in terms of coming out of it.”