Political historian Allan Lichtman said he received death threats after his incorrect prediction that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election Donald Trump.

Lichtman’s model, which accurately predicted nine of the last 10 elections before this year assess the incumbent party’s position using 13 true or false “keys” in areas such as the economy, foreign policy and domestic policy.

He said in a post on X, formerly Twitter: “We’ve had death threats, doxxing, bashing and intimidation at our door. We will not be bullied. Federal law enforcement officers are now on alert.”

“Doxxing” refers to maliciously seeking someone’s personal information and tricking an emergency service into sending a police or emergency response team to another person’s address.

Newsweek reached out to Lichtman for comment by email outside normal business hours.

In September, the model led to predict Harris to winbut he admitted his mistake following the election, noting that many prognosticators had also misjudged the outcome.

According to the model’s logic, if six or more of the 13 “keys” are false, the incumbent is expected to lose; if five or fewer are false, the party is expected to retain the White House.

In a live stream posted on his YouTube channel on November 7, the so-called Nostradamus poll admitted he was wrong.

“But I was far from the only forecaster who was wrong. Most of the other models were wrong,” Lichtman said. “It wasn’t just a single key failure. It was much broader than that.”

Before the election, polling site FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Harris a 50 percent chance of winning and Trump a 49 percent chance.

During Thursday’s YouTube live stream, the professor said the problem wasn’t with the keys themselves and that he believed he interpreted each one correctly.

“My events are based on history,” Lichtman said.

The American University professor acknowledged that certain events in any election could have enough of an impact to change the course of history.

“I think that’s what happened here,” he said.

“If you’re going to trash your sitting president that badly, that’s going to taint any nominee associated with that failed president, and especially if you pick the vice president.”

Lichtman also pointed out that it was “unprecedented” for Harris to not have attended any primaries or caucuses before taking the nomination.

“I rang the key as best I could given an unprecedented situation because 99 percent of the delegates (members) rallied behind Harris, but I had to deal with an unprecedented situation.”

“White House Keys” has long been criticized by some political scientists, statisticians and journalists for being “prone to bias and subjectivity”.

Lichtman’s counterpart in the survey world, statistician Nate Silver, said in late September that the keys predicted a Trump victory, to which the historian responded that Silver “hasn’t the faintest idea how to turn the keys.”

What are the keys to the White House?

The 13 Keys as presented by the historian in a 2012 article for Social education journal, they are:

1. The mandate of the party: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the party’s nomination for office.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The party’s incumbent candidate is the incumbent president.
4. No third parties: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economics: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economics: Real economic growth per capita during the term equals or exceeds the average growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major Policy Change: The current administration is making major changes in national policy.
8. No social disturbances: No sustained social unrest during tenure.
9. No scandal: The current administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign or military failure: The incumbent administration does not suffer any major setbacks in foreign or military affairs.
11. Major foreign or military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic Owner: The current party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger: The challenger party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Have a story we should cover? Have questions about the 2024 presidential election? Contact [email protected]