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High chance of showers through Veterans Day

Online Niel November 10, 2024

BIRMINGHAM, Ala. (WBRC)- First AccuTrack alert shows mostly cloudy skies in central alabama tonight as a stalled front and southerly flow brought more moisture to the state. Some isolated showers will be possible at times overnight, but not everyone is guaranteed to see rain. We’ll probably wake up in the mid 60s tomorrow morning with a chance of a stray shower. A cold front will approach our area Sunday evening, increasing our chance of seeing scattered showers. Tomorrow will likely remain cloudy with highs in the mid 70s. Winds are forecast to be out of the southeast at 10 mph with gusts up to 15-20 mph. Tomorrow will remain cloudy with possible continuous showers. Rain chances will increase Sunday night into Monday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Showers cannot be ruled out early Monday morning. An isolated thunderstorm will be possible, but no severe weather is expected.

Veterans Day Forecast: Monday could start with clouds and a chance of isolated rain, but I think the clouds will slowly clear on Monday afternoon, giving us mostly sunny skies. Veterans Day temperatures will likely climb into the mid 70s. Drier air will move in Monday night, making it feel less humid. Temperatures will likely cool into the low 50s by Tuesday morning. Tuesday is expected to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid-70s.

Looking ahead: Long-range models suggest another cold front will arrive later in the week. While there is still some uncertainty as to how much rain we could get with this system, for now we are anticipating at least a few possible showers starting late Wednesday afternoon and may persist into Thursday morning with rain coverage around 40-50%. Behind the cold front, temperatures could trend closer to average, with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s heading into the weekend. Overnight lows will eventually feel more like November, with temperatures potentially dropping into the mid to low 40s next Friday and Saturday morning.

Tropical Update: Rafael remains a tropical storm in the central Gulf of Mexico tonight. Wind shear and dry air continue to weaken it. Rafael will meander across the Gulf and eventually drift south toward the Gulf of Campeche by the middle of next week, where it will likely weaken into a remnant low as it nears Mexico. It will produce a high current threat for coastal Louisiana this weekend.

We are also tracking a tropical wave approaching the Bahamas that has a 10% chance of forming. Hurricane season continues through the end of the month, and we can’t rule out a few more storms before the season ends on November 30. The typical place to watch for tropical development in November is the Caribbean.