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    • How will Trump handle a second term, Israel, Middle East wars?
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    How will Trump handle a second term, Israel, Middle East wars?

    Online Niel Posted on

    The past is an imperfect predictor of the future, or – in simpler terms – what was is not necessarily what will be. It might be, but it won’t necessarily be.

    That saying is worth remembering when assessing the impact of Tuesday’s stunning win once and for all future president Donald Trump. There was clearly relief and satisfaction in Jerusalem at the outcome of the election results, as Jerusalem will presumably have an easier ride with a Trump presidency than it would have had with a Kamala Harris one.

    This assumption is based not on little, but rather on recent history: Jerusalem had a much easier time with Washington during Trump’s first term than during the tenure of US President Joe Biden. A Harris presidency was expected to have continued the tone and approach of Biden’s policies toward Israel, though perhaps without the same warmth toward the Jewish state that the incumbent president felt and demonstrated.

    During his first term, Trump has taken numerous steps – from moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem, to recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, to brokering Abraham’s covenants – which demonstrated an unprecedented alignment with Israel’s priorities.

    Could those pro-Israeli policies continue? It certainly could, but Trump 2.0 won’t necessarily be a continuation of Trump 1.0. As reassuring as Trump’s past gestures have been, his second term — and his relationship with Israel — will be shaped by new circumstances, new priorities and new personalities around him.

    Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump appears on a congratulatory sign for the 2024 US presidential election in Tel Aviv, Israel November 6, 2024. (Credit: THOMAS PETER/REUTERS)

    For example, being constitutionally barred from running for president again, Trump will re-enter the White House on January 20, indebted to no one. While he will obviously want to ensure his party wins the mid-term elections, his policies will not be as influenced by classical political considerations – what one of his key constituencies will say or think – as they have been during his first term.

    It’s not as if he ever had to factor the Jewish vote into his calculations — he never had the Jewish vote, though his share of the Jewish vote on Tuesday, at least according to the Fox News exit poll, rose from 24 % in 2016. , to 30% in 2020, to 32% in the most recent election – an 8% increase in eight years, not insignificant in the upcoming elections in the battleground states.

    But the target audience for some of his policies toward Israel were not Jews, but rather evangelical Christian voters, a core group of his base. As he said on the campaign trail in 2020 when he talked about his decision to move the embassy to Jerusalem: “That’s for the evangelicals. You know, it’s amazing about it—the evangelicals are more excited about it than the Jews. That’s right, it’s incredible.”

    Not only does not running again mean he doesn’t have to do anything for a particular constituency — and, by the way, Tuesday’s election showed his base is broadening and becoming more diverse — but it won’t be as if he’s worried about potential donors. One of his biggest donors in the current campaign (to the tune of about $100 million) was Miriam Adelson, the widow of Sheldon Adelson, who strongly supported him in previous runs.

    Will Trump’s priorities change?

    Without having to secure votes or campaign dollars, Trump’s priorities can shift, leaving room for different dynamics.

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    Another key factor that will shape his policies will be his inner circle. In his previous tenure, Jared Kushner, staunchly pro-Israel adviser and son-in-law, was instrumental in numerous issues, including the Middle East. It’s unclear what role he or his wife, Ivanka, will play this time around.

    Another key pro-Israel inner circle figure last time who won’t be there this time was Vice President Mike Pence, replaced by JD Vance, an isolationist who nevertheless makes exceptions in his global isolationist view of Israel – although he recently said that the US should not be dragged into a war with Iran.

    One name that has been mentioned as someone with increasing influence is Trump’s daughter Tiffany’s father-in-law Lebanese Christian businessman Massad Boulos. He was responsible for Trump’s apparently somewhat successful outreach to Arab Americans. (Interestingly, most Arab Americans are not Muslim, and most American Muslims are not Arab.)

    In the final days of the election, Trump wrote a letter to Lebanese Americans vowing to “stop the suffering and destruction in Lebanon” and adding that “your friends and family in Lebanon deserve to live in peace, prosperity and harmony with their neighbors. “

    Several pro-Israel figures have been named for the key national security posts — secretary of defense, secretary of state and national security adviser — including former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, senators Marco Rubio and Tom Cotton, and Richard Grenell, a former US ambassador to Germany who was also acting director of National Intelligence. It is also unclear what role former US ambassador to Israel David Friedman will play in the new administration and whether he can return to his post in Jerusalem.

    Until Trump makes those selections in the coming weeks, the contours of his policy toward Israel and the Middle East will come into sharper focus.

    Regardless of who Trump selects for these key posts, one man in Jerusalem whose influence is sure to grow is Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer. Dermer was Israel’s ambassador to Washington from 2013 to 2021 and developed close ties to the Trump administration, the kind of ties that new Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar will take years to develop. As such, Israel’s policy toward the new administration will be driven even more than usual by those outside the Foreign Ministry: Netanyahu himself and Dermer.

    The American political landscape in play

    In addition to the key figures on both the US and Israeli sides who will shape the relationship, the broader US political landscape will also play a significant role.

    Amid the buzz over Trump’s recapture of the White House, what has received less attention — at least in Israel — is that Republicans have also taken control of the Senate, appear to be on track to retain control of the House, and that conservatives they have a majority on the Supreme Court.

    That means Trump has a full house in Washington. Even though the Republican Party today is strongly pro-Israel — with polls consistently showing its ranks far more pro-Israel than Democrats — a unified Republican White House and Congress may force Netanyahu to reevaluate tactics.

    Why? Because in this constellation, it will be very difficult for Netanyahu to ignore the president’s wishes and try to circumvent what the president wants by appealing to allies in Congress. Netanyahu and Dermer are adept at pulling off this kind of ending, best exemplified by securing an invitation from the Republican congressional leadership in 2015 for Netanyahu to address a joint session of Congress on Iran against President Barack Obama’s wishes.

    But if the president and the leadership of the Senate and House are all from the same party, it will be more difficult for Israel to counter the president’s demands and try to get members of the House or Senate to thwart the president’s plans or wishes. With a Republican House and Senate, he won’t be able to get them to fight the president. What this will do is limit Israel’s maneuverability and ability to say no to Trump, and there will be times when the interests of the two countries do not align and Netanyahu will want to take action against the president or oppose moves made or proposed by White. House.

    This is something that will have an impact on Israel’s domestic politics, because saying no to the president—or being willing to say no to the US president—is actually something that has helped, not hindered, him politically. Netanyahu.

    During the Obama administration, the president — following bad advice from advisers such as chief of staff Rahm Emanuel — chose to have public confrontations with Netanyahu, believing that doing so would cost Netanyahu support among an unwilling Israeli public. to see his prime minister. in a dispute with the US president. But the opposite happened: in the conflicts between the two leaders – as happened several times over the settlements, the diplomatic process with the Palestinians and Iran – the Israeli public, or at least the Likud base, rallied. prime minister

    Ironically, Netanyahu was at his most politically powerful from 2009 to 2016, when Obama served as his White House prop. The endless cycle of five inconclusive Israeli elections in less than four years began in April 2019, with three of those elections taking place while Trump was president and fully supporting Netanyahu. Even with this strong support, Netanyahu did not win any of those elections outright.

    Now it will be increasingly difficult for Netanyahu to bolster his credentials with his base as someone who stands alone against the whole world when Trump is president, flanked by a Republican House and Congress, and it will be impossible for Netanyahu to say his “no”.

    This new environment doesn’t just affect Netanyahu’s influence; it also reshapes the arguments of the opposition. Take Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, for example. One of Lapid’s central talking points for years has been that the Israel-US relationship is broken, that Netanyahu broke it because he can’t work with the Democrats, and that he could do so.

    Well, with Trump now secured for another four years and Republicans well entrenched in all branches of government, that particular argument — if the election here is held early or under the October 2026 mandate — will be much less compelling.



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