There’s an AFC West tilt at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, Nov. 10, with the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs hosting the surprising 5-4 Denver Broncos.

It was a strong Denver defense that led the way, but our top NFL picks and Parlay selections in the same game Broncos vs. The Chiefs expect the KC offense to be fine in Week 10.

Broncos vs Chiefs SGP for Week 10

Chiefs Team Total Over 24.5

Javonte Williams Over 37.5 yards rushing

Justin Watson Over 15.5 receiving yards

The Kansas City Chiefs they’ve scored 26 or more points in every home game, averaging 27.3 per game, and they also pace the league in offensive success rate while ranking ninth in offensive DVOA and EPA per game .

I’m not convinced either Denver Broncos the defense can live up to its impressive value. Call me skeptical, but I don’t believe the Broncos are allowing the third-lowest EPA per game, ranking seventh in defensive DVOA and ranking fifth in PFF the degree of defense is sustainable.

The Baltimore Ravens had no problem hanging 41 points on the scoreboard while posting the highest yards per game and EPA per game against Denver last week, and that’s another step up in class for the defense.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have been an imposing run defense with the fewest yards per carry (3.1) and PFF’s fourth-highest run defense grade.

However, Broncos running back Javonte Williams has 40 or more yards rushing on double-digit carries in five of his last six contests while averaging a respectable 4.3 per tote.

I also appreciate that Denver’s offensive line is coming together and blocking better as the season has progressed. The Broncos averaged a 48.2 PFF run-blocking grade through the first three weeks of the year and have since posted a 66.1 mark over the past six games, which also lines up with the improved run highlighted by Williams.

Additionally, Denver has moved up to sixth in rushing success over the past six games, compared to 23rd over the first three weeks.

Going back to the final stretch of this game in the same game, I frequently look to Chiefs wide receiver Justin Watson in this market because he always has low receiving yardage totals despite his consistent role in the offense. Watson has collected six of seven targets for 76 yards over the past two games to also surpass that benchmark of 15.5 yards each.

There’s also the potential for Watson to have positive regression ahead of his receiving yards and aDoT, given his much higher numbers in each of his first two seasons in Kansas City’s offense.

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