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The abortion ballot initiatives could have helped Harris win, but Trump overperformed
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The abortion ballot initiatives could have helped Harris win, but Trump overperformed

Despite Kamala Harris’ loss, pro-abortion activists are celebrating the 2024 election results, claiming abortion rights have won.

“When we look at the election results this week, we’ve seen voters in states that are really different from each other, in the majority of the big ones they support abortion rights,” Elisabeth Smith, director of state policy at the Center for Reproductive Rights, told ABC. News in an interview.

Abortion was a central issue in Harris’ campaign as she tried to draw a sharp distinction between her vision for the country and that of President-elect Donald Trump. But exit polls show some abortion-rights supporters still voted for Trump despite Roe v. Wade was overruled as a result of his US Supreme Court appointments.

Battlegrounds Arizona and Nevada were among the top 10 abortion states on Tuesday’s ballot. Some strategists hypothesized that this would increase voter turnout among the majority of voters who support legal abortion, helping Democratic candidates in the process.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris delivers a concession speech after the 2024 presidential election, Nov. 6, 2024, on the campus of Howard University in Washington.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

Trump’s approach, which focuses on states’ rights, seemed to resonate with voters who did not view abortion access as incompatible with a Trump presidency. In Arizona, 23 percent of those who voted yes on the state initiative enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution also voted for Trump. In Nevada, where another abortion-rights measure passed, 27 percent of yes voters chose Trump.

This followed nationally. Of the two-thirds of voters who said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, 28% voted for Trump; which included 30% in Arizona, 33% in Nevada and 36% in Florida.

Supporters of legal abortion ran hard for Harris, but the partisan elasticity on the issue hasn’t cut either way. Because Harris made abortion access a central focus of her campaign, she won only 9 percent of voters who said abortion should be illegal in all or most cases. In Arizona, anti-abortion voters made up 31 percent of the electorate and supported Trump by 95 percent.

“Thinking about what seems like a contradiction, research has shown that Americans — when there’s a pro-abortion ballot or a constitutional amendment or an initiative protecting abortion on the ballot — don’t see abortion as a problem partisan,” Smith said. . “Americans see abortion as a freedom and liberty issue.”

Supporters listen as Vice President Kamala Harris delivers a concession speech after the 2024 presidential election, Nov. 6, 2024, on the campus of Howard University in Washington.

Jacquelyn Martin/AP

“In 2022, 10 percent of Kentucky voters voted against the restrictive constitutional amendment that was on their ballot and for Rand Paul — a senator who has made his opposition to abortion rights known,” Smith said.

Trump also told voters there would be no federal abortion ban, and voters may have been convinced by him, Smith said.

“I don’t think people know that a federal ban on abortion would preempt state constitutional protections. So I think there could also be this sense of ‘I’m voting yes on this amendment and that means my state is OK,’” Smith. said.

At least 14 states have ended nearly all abortion services since Roe v. Wade was overturned. In all, 21 states have abortion restrictions in place.

Seven of the 10 states with abortion on the ballot are expected to vote in favor of abortion rights, while three states will uphold abortion restrictions — marking a first since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Six states have previously voted in favor of abortion rights in the 2022 midterm elections.

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and President-elect Donald Trump.

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In Florida, 57 percent of voters voted in favor of enshrining protections for abortion rights in the state constitution, but the measure failed to reach the 60 percent threshold it needed to pass. Still, abortion rights groups called the measure a success, saying a majority of voters are pro-abortion.

“Abortion has won a lot,” Gretchen Borchelt, vice president for reproductive rights and health at the National Women’s Law Center, said at a news conference Wednesday. “If it wasn’t for the rigged rules and the very deliberate and intentional efforts to confuse and mislead voters and change the target and change the rules, abortion access would have won, certainly in Florida, but also in Nebraska and South Dakota”.

In Nebraska, two conflicting abortion-related amendments on the ballot confused voters, likely contributing to the initiative’s failure, Smith argued.

“There is research, outside of the abortion context, but on ballot initiatives that shows that when voters are faced with two choices on the same question, it creates a lot of confusion about what people are voting for. And in Nebraska, when the signatures were. being collected, there were voters who claimed they were told they were signing the abortion rights petition and later found out they signed the anti-abortion rights petition,” Smith said.

Former Republican President and presidential nominee Donald Trump arrives at an election night party at the Palm Beach Convention Center November 6, 2024 in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Evan Vucci/AP

Despite the success of ballot initiatives, advocates need to make it more clear to people that their elected officials largely determine their ability to access reproductive health care, such as abortion, said Kelly Baden, vice president of policy at the Guttmacher Institute. in an interview with ABC News.

“Women are dying because of these abortion bans. And, unfortunately, to see that reality wasn’t enough for people to fully prioritize abortion rates in every possible way, that’s a tough pill to swallow,” Baden said. .

“Seven states have strongly declared their support for abortion, active rights through ballot measures, and I think there’s a larger conversation about how and why people are able to make sense of their own voting patterns. This is an issue that predates Trump,” Baden said.

ABC News’ Gary Langer contributed to this report.