The TCU Horned Frogs they are 5-4 on the season after losing to their rivals Baylor last weekend. Although they have yet to reach bowl eligibility, the Frogs managed to cover the spread (+3) with a final score of 37-34. This week, the Horned Frogs face a Oklahoma State Cowboys team still looking for their first conference win and are currently -10 favorites.

TCU has one 61.2% FPI probability to win this game, and are currently 5-4 against the spread after covering the Bears last weekend. The over is 6-3, with 72 points covering the 63 points over/under.

When looking at the preseason projection for the Cowboys, fans are confused about where Mike Gundy and his team stand. After opening the season as overwhelming favorites to be in Arlington playing for a conference championship, the Pokets still find themselves in the hunt. for the first Big 12 win of the season. The Pokes return 20 of 22 starters from last season, including the QB Alan Bowman, who was benched during the season due to his play, but is back in the starting lineup after an injury.

Another thing to note for this matchup is that Oklahoma State has the 132nd ranked defense in all of FBS. There are only 134 teams. The Pokes are giving up over 500 yards per game and are also giving up over 31 points per game. Compare that to their offense, which despite having an All-American Ollie Gordon II 117th in rushing offense per game and a quarterback who struggled so much he was benched during the season.

That said, -10 still feels like a lot of points from a Horned Frog team that has struggled to find consistency all season. The Frogs have seen an upward trend in their offensive consistency over the past two games, having struggled against Houston and Utah. A win makes the Frogs bowl eligible, something the coaching staff hasn’t done since 2022, which was also the last time TCU played the Cowboys and won in an overtime thriller. I’m going with my gut on this one and trust the TCU offense to find sustained success against an Oklahoma State defense that has struggled all year.

Choice: TCU -10 or better

Oklahoma State’s offense is averaging 29 points per game due to its non-conference performance. When adjusted for conference play alone, he averages 22 points per game — a nearly touchdown difference. On the other side of the ball, TCU is averaging 32 points per game, carried by Long Island (45) and SMU (42). When adjusted for conference play, the Frogs are averaging 28 points per game.

With the TCU defense’s main struggles against the run, Oklahoma State’s inability to get Gordon going, and the Horned Frog’s inability to stay consistent on the offensive side of the ball, I think the line is a little too high for this one.

2024 record: 0-0

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