The Santa Barbara Independent republish stories from CalMatters.org on state and local issues affecting Santa Barbara County readers.

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Immigrant advocates in California and state officials are bracing for what they describe as the likely massive impact of a second Trump presidency on border policies — vowing to fight their plans in court, even as they remain unsure which will carry over from the campaign election to reality.

Trump has pledged to lead the greatest mass deportation campaign in US history on January 20 when he takes office; threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico if it doesn’t stop the northward flow of migrants and fentanyl; and described plans to use the military as part of its crackdown, considering deploying the National Guard to help with deportations if necessary.

“We’re going to have to seal those borders and we’re going to have to let people come into our country,” the president-elect said during his acceptance remarks on Tuesday. “We want people to come back, but they have to, we have to let them come back, but they have to come in legally.”

Lee Gelernt, an attorney with the American Civil Liberties Union who has supported challenges to immigration restrictions during Trump’s first term, said: “Many of the policies that Trump supports and promises, like the use of the military, are illegal and we are ready to challenge them. ” An ACLU “road map.” on Trump’s re-election, outlined plans to push lawmakers to block deportations and scale back Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s detention operations. He also envisioned a “civil rights firewall” to protect immigrants and litigation against deportations.

Other organizations have pledged to join the fight.

“We believe Trump when he promises to enact disastrous policies aimed at destroying families, destabilizing communities and weakening our economy,” said Lindsay Toczylowski, CEO and president of the Immigrant Defenders Law Center in Los Angeles.

“But the US Constitution did not disappear overnight. We will use all the tools at our disposal to protect and defend the rights of all immigrants and asylum seekers“, she added.

Those intent on fighting Trump’s border policy face the strategic challenge of not knowing if or when each of his myriad border-related proposals will be implemented, or how feasible and legal they will prove to be.

But immigrant advocates said the impact of his election is likely to be massive. California is home to more immigrants than any other state in the country, about 10.6 million people, as well as the most unauthorized immigrants, according to 2022 figures compiled by the Pew Research Center. Immigrants make up more than a quarter of the state’s population, and nearly half of all California children have at least one immigrant parent.

“If Donald Trump is successful with deportations, no state will be hurt more from a fiscal perspective, from an economic perspective,” said Gov. Gavin Newsom. he said at a press briefing last week.

State Attorney General Rob Bonta told CalMatters that his office is ready to fight, spending the months leading up to the election crafting legal strategies.

“The best way to protect California, its values, the rights of our people, is to be prepared so that we are not wavering,” Bonta said days before the election. Bonta’s comments indicate that the state, which has sued more than 100 times over Trump’s policies in his first term, will once again be a thorn in the president’s side.

Those waiting in Tijuana to legally cross into the United States through CBP One, the federal government’s phone app, worried Wednesday that their opportunity to apply for asylum had already slipped away.

“Sadness,” is what Emir Mesa said he felt when he heard of Trump’s pending victory. The 45-year-old mother and new grandmother from Michoacán said she fled her hometown because of extreme violence there.

“We don’t want to come in as illegals,” she said. “That’s why we’re here in Tijuana, waiting to get in right, not get smuggled in.” She held her 15-day-old grandson as she described how her family waited six months at the Movimiento Juventud 2000 migrant shelter, located a stone’s throw from the U.S.-Mexico border.

Trump said he plans to end the Biden administration’s use of CBP One, through which migrants can apply for asylum in the US. But it remains unclear what will happen to people who have already spent months in Mexico on the waiting list for initial asylum screening. appointment.

Impact on American citizens

Trump’s border policies may also have a significant impact on all Californians by disrupting trade and expanding surveillance.

His administration would have to expand the border surveillance apparatus already in place to carry out deportations on the scale he planned, experts said. Federal authorities they used everything from camera towers to drones to ground sensors and thermal imaging to detect migrants in recent years.

“Given the indiscriminate nature of mass surveillance, it is possible that US citizens and others permanently in the country are also caught in its web,” said Petra Molnar, a Harvard faculty associate, attorney and author of the book “The Walls Have Eyes”. : Surviving Migration in the Age of Artificial Intelligence.”

Trump’s border plans also appear poised to spill over into regional economies and Mexico.

On Monday, Trump said he plans to impose tariffs on Mexico if the country does not stop the flow of migrants and fentanyl to the north. Local business leaders scoffed as they recalled the damage done to the border region’s economy during Trump’s first term. The peso fell to its lowest level in two years.

“It’s important to remember that we don’t just trade with Mexico, we manufacture together,” said San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce CEO Jerry Sanders, a Republican and former mayor of the border city. “At the end of the day, this would be a tax on American customers and would likely trigger a domino effect of other countries imposing retaliatory measures to protect their own interests.”

A massive deportation campaign would have a clear impact on California’s economy.

More than half of all California workers are immigrants or children of immigrants, and collectively, the state’s undocumented residents paid nearly $8.5 billion in taxes in 2022, playing a key role in boosting the state’s economy, according to the California Budget & Policy Center and data estimates. from the Institute of Taxation and Economic Policy.