Maps from the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) show the forecasted impact of Hurricane Rafael over the US as the storm rolls into the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday night as a Category 3 hurricane. Wind speeds have since dropped to 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane as it begins a long journey through the Gulf. The latest forecasts anticipate this Raphael will move west, maintaining hurricane strength until Saturday morning, when it will likely weaken to a tropical storm.

The forecast is a change from earlier in the week, when forecasters predicted Rafael would target Louisiana. The wake of the storm then moved to Texas, and has since moved further south, so the storm is unlikely to make direct landfall in the US given current forecasts.

Tropical Storm Warnings in the Florida Keys

However, the knock-on effects have already begun. Tropical storm conditions were expected in the Florida Keys Wednesday evening, with threats of coastal flooding and heavy rain. The warnings were discontinued Thursday morning, the NWS office in Key West said, though occasional thunderstorms were still expected throughout Thursday.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for waters off Florida, and a small craft advisory warns boaters not to venture into the waters around the Florida Keys.

US beaches expect dangerous rip currents

Alabama and the Florida Panhandle are expecting dangerous ocean conditions and rip currents from the storm, NWS meteorologist David Reese said. Newsweek. A coastal hazard advisory is in effect for coastal beaches near Mobile, Alabama and Tallahassee, Florida, and will remain through the weekend. Dangerous currents and waves could cause beaches to close over the weekend, and Reese advised beachgoers to note beach flags for any closures.

“Surge generated by Rafael is expected to spread over most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days,” the NHC warned. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and current conditions.”

Impact of wind in the USA

There is also a slight risk of tropical storm-force winds in some coastal areas, the NHC warned. A map from the NHC showed the low probability that coastal Louisiana and parts of Texas would experience tropical storm-force winds, which occur when winds are above 39 mph.

“Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and into early next week,” the NHC said. “Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”

It’s unclear whether any rain associated with the storm will reach the U.S. beyond what has already fallen in the Florida Keys. The latest NHC precipitation maps warn of additional rain over Cuba on Thursday and the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend.