Just four years ago, a North Carolina Supreme Court race came down to just over 400 votes. Ultimately, after recounts failed to change the outcome, Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, the Democratic incumbent, conceded defeat to Republican Paul Newby.

Now, the outcome of this year’s only contest for a state Supreme Court seat could hinge on many thousands of provisional ballots being processed by county election boards over the next week and a half.

By Election Day, Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin, currently a judge on the North Carolina Court of Appeals, led Democratic incumbent Justice Allison Riggs by less than 10,000 votes.

According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections, over 60,000 provisional ballots were chosen on election day. Now, during the canvas of the countythe 10-day post-election audit process, local election boards will process those ballots, in addition to the more than 5,700 provisionals cast during the early voting period.

Voters must issue provisional ballots in a variety of situations, such as when their registration status cannot be confirmed at the polling place, when they show up at the wrong polling station on election day, or when they do not present a photo ID.

Not all provisional ballots end up being approved and counted by the local electoral board, which must validate the voter’s eligibility. In 2020, for example, only about a third of the more than 40,000 provisional ballots issued ended up being approved.

Depending on how many provisional ballots were approved this year — and in which blue or red counties they were cast — the final tally could either reverse the results or force a recount in the state Supreme Court race.

In a statewide race like this, a runner-up can ask for a recount when I am behind by 0.5% of the votes cast in that contest or 10,000 votes, whichever is less.

The final outcome of the race between Riggs and Griffin would have minimal impact on the makeup of the high court, beyond consolidating the conservatives’ grip on power. Republicans now hold a 5-2 majority over the liberal justice.

That conservative majority flexed its muscle last year when it overturned an earlier ruling that had deemed Republican redistricting plans unconstitutional and overly partisan.

The reversal allowed GOP state lawmakers to redraw district maps in their favor. With the new district plans in place for this year’s elections, North Carolina will go from an evenly split congressional delegation split 7-7 between Republicans and Democrats to a strong 10-3 GOP tilt.