A new report from The Queen’s reveals that 90% of those asked expressed a definite view, 57% in favor of the continued application of Articles 5-10 and 33% against.

Deputies are expected to hold a first vote in November/December 2024, after the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland (NI), Hilary Benn, formally launched the “democratic consent process” on 31 October 2024.

The future of the core provisions of the Windsor Protocol/Framework – those relating to the movement of goods and the single electricity market (ie Articles 5-10) – is subject to the democratic agreement of MEPs in a vote to be held up to every four years.

Support for “democratic consent” is highest among respondents who identify as “strongly nationalist” (92%), “somewhat nationalist” (87%) or “neutral” (84%), while opposition is higher among respondents who identify as “strong unionist” (90%). Among those who identified themselves as “slightly unionist”, more MPs vote for (44%) than against (27%) for the continued application of articles 5-10.

Speaking about the latest findings, Principal Investigator, Professor David Phinnemore from Queen’s School of History, Anthropology, Philosophy and Politics said: “This latest poll once again shows majority support for MPs voting in favor of democratic consent. Such support cannot, however, mask the fact that the majority respondents who identify as “strongly unionist” remains implacably opposed to the Protocol/Windsor Framework”.

Co-investigator, Professor Katy Hayward from Queen’s School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work commented: “While there has been a notable decline in media coverage of the Windsor Framework in recent months, many NI voters clearly have strong views on the issue. Indeed, after a slight softening of the differences, the dividing line between them seems to be at risk of growing again. The fact that 3/4 of respondents to our survey want to see greater joint presentation of UK/EU factual information on this topic is certainly a sign that people would prefer opinions to be shaped by facts rather than of political positions or identities.”

• More voters see the impact of the Windsor Protocol/Framework on Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market as negative (41%) rather than positive (32%); this is a clear reversal of the situation in February 2024 (when it was 41% positive, 34% negative).

• Trust in the UK government (8%) to manage Northern Ireland’s interests in relation to the Windsor Framework is at its highest level and distrust (74%) at its lowest level since the survey began in March 2021. Those who most confident in this continue to be Northern Ireland business representatives (51%).

• The effects of the Protocol/Windsor Framework rank low among voters’ current concerns, with only 5% of respondents placing it as their top concern in a list of ten, and 20% placing it in the top three; 58% put it among the three lowest concerns out of the ten listed.

This latest poll (using a weighted sample of 1,020 respondents from across Northern Ireland) was conducted by LucidTalk for Queen’s from 18-21 October 2024 and the first since Labor won the UK General Election.