Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris in the US presidential election matters for many reasons, but above all climate change.

No presidential candidate in US history has presented such a threat to global efforts to reduce carbon pollution as Trump.

After all, Trump regularly refers to climate change as a “hoax” and a “hoax,” even though his home state of Florida is being hit by more frequent and more severe hurricanes.

So what will a Trump presidency mean for climate policy, including in Australia? Get in, it’s not pretty.

Withdrawal from Paris and the UN climate treaty

Let’s start with international relations.

It is likely that Trump take out the United States of America of The Paris Agreementthe landmark international climate pact negotiated in 2015 during the Obama administration. trump card the US withdrew from understanding when he was last at the White House.

More worryingly, Trump could go further this time and try to withdraw the US from the international treaty underpinning the deal – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. That would throw the U.S. further out of the global effort to reduce dangerous greenhouse gas emissions and make it harder for a later president to pick up the effort. Accession to a treaty requires a two-thirds majority in the Senate and legal experts are divided if Trump could leave a treaty without the same mandate.

Australia is bidding to host UN climate change negotiations in 2026, the so-called COP31. If he succeeds, he will have to conduct challenging negotiations without the diplomatic support of our closest ally.

And with the US no longer working on climate action, Australia will need to forge new alliances with governments in Europe and Asia and strengthen existing ones. For example, the new Labor government in the United Kingdom has already proposed a Global Alliance for Clean Powerwhich Australia is no doubt considering.

Increase in greenhouse gas emissions

USA is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the worldafter China. If it doesn’t reduce pollution, humanity’s climate goals will be further out of reach—and with it, the chances of preserving a habitable planet this century and beyond.

In 2100, when children living today are the same age as Trump, the loss of the Great Barrier Reef will be the least of their worries. They will fight more frequent and more intense heat waveslonger bushfire seasons, flooding and sea ​​level rise.

Trump has promised a complete repeal of the President Joe Biden’s flagship climate legislationInflation Reduction Act. That law passed in 2022 and was a boon for clean energy. He has already offered billions of dollars in tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines and batteries, among other technologies.

But it remains to be seen whether Trump will follow through on the threat. Some Republicans support the Inflation Relief Act, especially those whose states have benefited from jobs and investment. In fact, more than three-quarters of investments in clean energy announced by the Biden administration are in Republican districts, such new solar production in South Carolina.

No wonder, then, that Republican lawmakers have already done so written leadership who oppose the repeal of the climate bill. But with Republicans having just flipped the Senate and, as of this writing, the House remains up for grabs, repeal remains a viable possibility.

Environmental protection

Under Trump, the US Environmental Protection Agency will be gutted, along with many other government agencies.

Trump pledged to eliminate all sorts of environmental regulations in his first days in office. This includes reopening oil wells Alaska National Arctic Refuge.

This could be just the beginning. During the campaign he seems to have offered Oil and gas executives are given the chance to rewrite climate and energy policy in return for a US$1 billion (A$1.5 billion) political donation – in one of the most brazen attempts to sell politics to the highest bidder bidder.

Australia must stay on track

There will be a temptation for some political leaders here to advocate for Australia to back out of action on climate change, pointing to Trump’s policies and arguing that Australia should follow suit.

That would be a mistake. Not just because it will make another horror fire season more likely, or because it will cause further flooding in towns like Lismore in New South Wales. But because it would forgo the significant economic opportunities Australia can capture from a clean energy future.

The Australian government should double down Future Made in Australia agenda, which aims to do just that, for example by extending production tax credits to additional clean energy industries and boosting public finance for new renewable energy projects, as well as Inflation Reduction Act in the USA it does.

Of course, Australia would also have to address the allocated billions coal and gas subsidies every year, which the US has failed to do under both the Biden and Trump presidencies.

Australian government officials should also work to strengthen relationships with US states working on climate action – both progressive states like California and Republican states benefiting from clean energy investment.

The US election result does not change the basic facts: Australia remains a lucky country when it comes to clean energy. We have solar, wind and hydro in abundance, not to mention a skilled workforce and deep expertise in large energy projects.

What is needed now are sustainable climate policies that support long-term investment and build the industries of the future, such as green iron for steel production.

Australia may have lost a major ally in the fight against climate change. But that should make us more determined to work with others around the world. Our largest trading partners are in Asia, and future demand for our clean energy exports will also come from our region.

With smart policies at home and strategic engagement overseas, Australia will remain well positioned to drive a clean energy transition.