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History of a string of accurate 1984 election predictions falls short of Trump’s 2024 victory
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History of a string of accurate 1984 election predictions falls short of Trump’s 2024 victory

Historian Allan Lichtman, who has predicted almost every election since 1984, has been proven wrong this cycle after President-elect Trump sailed to victory on election day.

Fox News’ polling station predicted Trump would win the presidency in the early hours of Wednesday after Wisconsin’s call for the former president officially brought him over the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to secure a victory.

Lichtman, an election prognosticator who had previously correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about presidential elections. He predicted after the Democratic National Convention that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the White House this cycle — but the election night results show his prediction was wrong.

Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes provide a strong clue as to who will be named the winner on election night. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if ‘true’ they are given a ‘key’ and if ‘false’ their competitor gets the point.

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Professor Allan Lichtman

History professor Allan Lichtman delivers a lecture on “Thirteen Keys to the White House” at American University in Washington, DC on October 28, 2008. (Nicholas Kamm/Getty Images)

The “keys” are: party mandate, contest, mandate, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.

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According to Lichtman’s prediction, Harris held nine of the 13 keys before Election Day. These included no primary contest, no third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, no social unrest, no scandal, foreign/military success, and no challenger charisma.

Trump, however, defeated Harris by 277 electoral votes — counting.

The victory of the Trump family

Celebrating on election night, from left, Barron Trump, President-elect Trump, former first lady Melania Trump, Usha Chilukuri Vance, Sen. JD Vance and Ivanka Trump in West Palm Beach, Fla., Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

“The keys show that Kamala Harris he’s a predicted winner,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital before the election.

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After Trump was projected to be the 47th president, Lichtman said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that he was “evaluating last night’s results.”

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Lichtman said he would soon address the results.