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Donald Trump promises to bring lasting peace to a tumultuous Middle East. But the fix won’t be easy
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Donald Trump promises to bring lasting peace to a tumultuous Middle East. But the fix won’t be easy

Donald Trump will return to the presidency at a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East.

TEL AVIV, Israel – Donald Trump will return to the US presidency in a time of unprecedented conflict and uncertainty in the Middle East. He promised to fix it.

But Trump’s history of strong support for Israel, along with his insistence campaigning for a quick end to the war in Gaza, isolationist forces in the Republican party and his penchant for unpredictability raise plenty of questions about how his second presidency will affect the region at this crucial time.

Barring an elusive cease-fire before inauguration, Trump will ascend to the highest office in the land as brutal war in Gaza still angry and Israel presses its offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah militant group. A conflagration between Iran and Israel it shows no sign of abating – nor do Israel’s conflicts with Iranian proxies in Iraq and Yemen – and Iran’s nuclear program remains a major concern for Israel.

Throughout his campaign, Trump promised to bring peace to the region.

“Finish it and let’s get back to peace and stop killing people,” Trump said of the Gaza conflict in an interview with conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in April.

Israel launched the war in response to Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023when militants killed 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 250, with dozens still in Gaza. Israel’s offensive has killed more than 43,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, whose numbers do not distinguish between civilians and fighters, although they say more than half of the dead are women and children.

The war has sparked a humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, pushing Israel into increasing international isolation, with two world tribunals examining charges of war crimesand sparked a wave of protests on American campuses which have fueled the debate over the role of the US as Israel’s main military and diplomatic supporter.

International mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar have tried unsuccessfully to broker a lasting ceasefire.

However, Trump has repeatedly called on Israel to “finish the job” and destroy Hamas — but has not said how.

“Finishing the job means you have a free hand to act in dealing with the remnants of Hamas? Or does finish the job mean the war must end now? asked David Makovsky, director of the program on Arab-Israeli relations at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “That’s part of the riddles here.”

Uncertainty also surrounds how Trump will engage with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. During his first term, Trump offered broad support for the Israeli leader’s tough policies, including unilateral withdrawal from a deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program which Netanyahu has long opposed.

Trump also recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, bolstering his claim to the disputed city and Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East war. He presented a peace plan with the Palestinians, widely seen as pro-Israel. Settlement building in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, seen as an obstacle to Palestinian status, has increased under his presidency.

Trump also helped secure agreements between Israel and four Arab countries to normalize ties that were not contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood — a major victory for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader hopes to replicate these successes through an agreement with Saudi Arabia.

The leaders fell out after Netanyahu congratulated President Joe Biden following the 2020 election — a move Trump saw as a letdown from his staunch ally. Netanyahu visited Trump in Florida this year.

Under Biden, the US has been critical at times and slowed some weapons deliveries in response to Israel’s behavior in Gaza. Netanyahu likely hopes that Trump’s return will loosen any restrictions on Israel to pursue its war aims. The US leader may also seek to challenge a potential international war crimes arrest warrant for Netanyahu. And a better relationship with Washington could help improve popular support for the Israeli leader.

“He has the greatest pro-Israel record of any president,” said Michael Oren, Israel’s former ambassador to Washington. “The hope here is that there will be more of the same.”

Netanyahu leads a far-right government whose key members have vowed to overthrow his leadership if the war in Gaza ends with nothing less than the destruction of Hamas. They support Gaza resettlement and are excited about a Trump presidency – and their influence will only increase now that Netanyahu has fired his defense minister over his more pragmatic approach to conflict.