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Exit polls 2024: How the gender gap plays out in key swing states
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Exit polls 2024: How the gender gap plays out in key swing states

The gender gap is considered a crucial factor in presidential elections between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Both candidates tried to turn the difference to their advantage, with Harris making reproductive freedom a centerpiece of her campaign, while Trump focused heavily on getting men to vote.

Men and women have long voted differently in presidential races, with the gender gap averaging 19 points in exit polls since 1996. But several pollsters told ABC News they are bracing for a “gender gap” in this year, given the contrast between a man and a woman. at the top of the ticket, as well as the importance of abortion rights as an issue after the fall of Roe v. Wade.

Preliminary results from exit survey datawhich may change as polls are updated throughout the election series, provides some insight into the voting preferences of men and women.

Nationally, Harris has a 10-point lead among women — 54 percent to Trump’s 44 percent — but her support is below 3 points of President Joe Biden’s support with the group in 2020.

Meanwhile, Trump leads by an identical 10-point margin among men.

There’s also a huge gender gap between young men (who are roughly split between Harris and Trump 49%-47%) and young women who support Harris by 26 points.

ABC News has not projected a winner in these races.

Georgia

In Georgia, preliminary results show Harris has a 7-point lead among women over Trump: 53% support to Trump’s 46%.

Compared to 2020 exit polls, Harris trails Biden slightly with women. Women opted for Biden by 9 percentage points. In the end, Biden flipped the blue state for the first time in decades, edging out a narrow victory over Trump there by less than 12,000 votes.

Trump has a 12-point lead among Georgia men, preliminary results show: 55 percent to Harris’ 43 percent. That’s the same gap he had there in the 2020 election against Biden.

Among younger voters, those between the ages of 18 and 29, women favor Harris by 29 points. Meanwhile, Trump has only a 2-point lead among men in the same age group.

North Carolina

In North Carolina, preliminary results show women going for Harris by 13 points, while men go for Trump by 15 points.

That’s a much larger gender gap than the state saw in 2020, according to exit polls. Biden won women by 7 points there, while Trump won men by 9 points.

Among younger voters, Harris has a 33-point lead among women, while Trump has a 23-point lead among men.

Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania — a battleground state that is considered a possible swing state — Harris has a 12-point lead among women: 55 percent to Trump’s 43 percent.

Trump’s lead with men is slightly larger: He has a 14-point lead among men: 56% to Harris’ 42%.

Again, preliminary exit poll results show a larger gender gap between Harris and Trump than between Biden and Trump. In 2020, women went for Biden by 11 points and men went for Trump by 11 points.

Women between the ages of 18 and 29 lead Harris by a 40-point margin, while Trump leads men in that age group by 24 points.

Arizona

In Arizona, women go for Harris by 3 points: 51% to Trump’s 48%.

Trump, meanwhile, boasts a larger lead among men: 52 percent support from the group, compared to Harris’ 45 percent.

This is also a wider gender gap than in 2020, when Biden won women by 3 points and Trump won men by 2 points.

Michigan

Harris boasts an 8-point lead among women in the battleground state, according to preliminary results: 53 percent to Trump’s 45 percent.

Trump has an 11-point lead among men: 54 percent to Harris’ 43 percent.

Among young voters ages 18 to 29, Harris has a 16-point lead among women, while Trump has a 20-point lead among men, according to preliminary results.

Wisconsin

Harris leads Wisconsin women by 11 points: 55 percent to Trump’s 44 percent. She is slightly behind Biden’s 13-point lead with women in 2020.

Trump has a 9-point lead among men: 54% to Harris’ 45%. Trump in 2020 won men by 10 points in the state.

Among young voters between the ages of 18 and 29, Harris has an 18-point lead among women, while Trump has a 5-point lead among men, according to preliminary results.

Nevada

In Nevada, Harris wins women 53 percent to Trump’s 43 percent — a 10-point difference.

Trump is winning men by a slightly larger margin, according to preliminary results: 55 percent to 41 percent.

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