SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) – Rafael is getting better and better organized. Rafael will continue to move northwest over the next few days and strengthen as it does so. The models continue to be split between a further northward, westward move toward the end of the forecast track. The official track is a mix of the two possible cases. It is forecast to be a hurricane as it moves into the Gulf. There are no changes to watches, warnings or advisories at this time.

The powerful ridge of high pressure that brought us sunny afternoons and mostly rain-free skies will begin to drift eastward. This change is in response to an approaching upper-level trough slowly advancing from the west. As the sea moves into the Atlantic, our winds will shift to the southeast, bringing in more moisture and raising dew points into the mid-70s – a level typical of a late summer afternoon. This will push our “feel like” temperature into the mid 90’s with afternoon air temps reaching the mid 80’s.

Clouds will thicken in the afternoon and showers will become more frequent than in recent days. You can expect gusty conditions with gusts reaching up to 25 mph. However, the most significant weather changes will occur on Wednesday.

On Wednesday, a tropical cyclone – likely to strengthen into Hurricane Rafael – will enter Gulf waters. This system will channel moisture across the state. Although widespread flooding is not expected due to the intermittent nature of the rainfall, rainfall totals could reach several inches before the storm moves away on Thursday. Although we are at a marginal risk of excessive rainfall, recent dry conditions mean that any risk of flooding remains low.

The storm will remain far enough offshore that storm surge will not be a concern along the coast. In addition, atmospheric conditions are not conducive to the formation of tornadoes, so severe weather is not expected.

By Thursday evening, the chance of rain will drop to 20%, with isolated showers possible. It will remain wet, but we will start to dry out.

On Friday, we can look forward to more sunshine and drier air.

Copyright 2024 WWSB. All rights reserved.