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What are the cradle states? See polls, past results from 7 key states

Online Niel November 5, 2024

The nation’s eyes are set to be on the seven swing states that could decide the 2024 presidential election as the race enters its final hours.

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have been tangling in the states, making their final pitches to crucial voters who could put them in the White House.

Recent survey everywhere Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona Events close races fish the battlefields of the elections.

A potential state of unexpected volatility emerged on Saturday when a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Harris ahead of Trump in Iowa by three points, though the result is within the poll’s margin of error. The state had been considered a safe state for Trump before the survey.

Here’s what you need to know about swing states as Election Day dawns.

State polls varied, past election results

Here are some recent polls in the battleground states, with the dates they were conducted, their sample size and margin of error, as well as the last two election results in each state.

Arizona

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump beats Clinton 49% to 45.5%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Biden beats Trump 49.4% to 49.1%

Georgia

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump knocked Hillary Clinton 51% to 45.9%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Joe Biden beat Trump 49.5% to 49.3%

Michigan

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump beat Clinton 47.6% to 47.4%
2020 presidential election results: Biden beats Trump 50.6% to 47.8%

Nevada

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Clinton beat Trump 47.9% to 45.5%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Biden beats Trump 50.1% to 47.7%

North Carolina

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump beat Clinton 50.5% to 46.8%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Trump beats Biden 50.1% to 48.7%

Pennsylvania

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump beat Clinton 48.6% to 47.9%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Biden beats Trump 50% to 48.8%

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Wisconsin

Previous election results:

Results of the 2016 presidential election: Trump beat Clinton 47.8% to 47%
2020 Presidential Election Results: Biden beats Trump 49.6% to 48.9%

Things to consider about surveys

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has, too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

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What are the cradle states? See polls, past results from 7 key states