TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday afternoon in the southern Caribbean.

The National Hurricane Center predicts this system will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday near the western tip of Cuba.

As always, the WCTV First Alert weather team is watching it closely, but the worry meter is low with this system.

The models agree pretty well that this tropical system will move north/northwest and move into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.

In the Gulf, conditions are not very favorable for tropical systems due to wind shear, dry air and cooler water temperatures. As a result, we anticipate a weakening on Thursday and Friday.

Right now the steering pattern appears to be taking this system into the central Gulf of Mexico and south of our region, but we expect an increase in tropical moisture Wednesday and Thursday.

After a recent dry spell, much-needed rain is likely at times Wednesday and Thursday across the Big Bend and South Georgia. Some pockets of heavier rain are possible.

As of Monday at 4 p.m., Rafael has winds of 45 mph and a low pressure of 997 mb.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a hurricane warning is in effect for portions of Cuba.

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