By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER

WASHINGTON (AP) — No one knows how Tuesday’s presidential election will play out, but the Federal Reserve’s move two days later is much easier to predict: With inflation continuing to coolThe Fed is set to cut interest rates to a the second time this year.

The presidential contest may still be unresolved when the Fed ends its two-day meeting on Thursday afternoon, but that uncertainty would have no effect on its decision to cut its benchmark rate further. The Fed’s future actions, however, will become more volatile once the new president and Congress take office in January, especially if Donald Trump were to win the White House again.

Trump’s proposals to impose high tariffs on all imports and launch mass deportations of unauthorized immigrants and his threat to intervene in the Fed’s normally rate-independent decisions could push inflation higher, economists said. Higher inflation would in turn force the Fed to slow or stop rate cuts.

On Thursday, Fed policymakers, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, are on track to cut their benchmark rate by a quarter point to about 4.6 percent, after implementing a half-point cut in September. Economists expect another quarter-point rate cut in December and possibly more such moves next year. Over time, rate cuts tend to lower borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

The Fed is cutting interest rates for a different reason than it usually does: It often cuts rates to stimulate a sluggish economy and weak labor market, encouraging more borrowing and spending. But the one the economy is growing rapidlyand the unemployment rate is a minimum of 4.1%the government reported Friday, even with hurricanes and a strike at Boeing net job growth severely depressed last month.

Instead, the central bank is cutting rates as part of what Powell called “a recalibration” to a lower inflation environment. When inflation rose to a four-decade high of 9.1% in June 2022, the Fed went on to raise rates 11 times — eventually sending the key rate to around 5.3%, also the highest in the last four decades.

But in September, year-on-year inflation fell to 2.4%just above the Fed’s 2 percent target and equal to its level in 2018. With inflation subdued so far, Powell and other Fed officials have said they believe high borrowing rates are no longer necessary. High borrowing rates typically limit growth, especially in interest rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and car sales.