• The rise of Kamala Harris’ electoral chances in recent days has weakened the Trump trade.
• In one poll over the weekend, Harris led Trump in Iowa, tipping the betting markets toward Harris.
• Treasury yields, the US dollar, the Mexican peso, Bitcoin, and Trump Media stocks are all moving.

A surprise change in a key presidential poll over the weekend had various betting odds to Kamala Harris, hitting a series of “Trump Trades” that have piled up in recent weeks.

A poll published over the weekend Harris was leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa, 47 percent to 44 percent. The poll, from the Des Moines Register/Mediacom and conducted by pollster J. Ann Selzer, is significant in that Iowa was considered a likely state for Trump to win.

“It’s hard for anybody to say they saw this coming,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. “She has clearly jumped into a leadership position.”

The poll sent shockwaves through betting markets over the weekend, with Kalshi showing Harris’ odds briefly overtaking Trump 51 percent to 49 percent for the first time since early October.

As of Monday morning at 11:35 a.m. ET, odds on the betting site were 55 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Harris. In Polymarket, where Trump’s shares were above 60% last week, they fell to 58.1%, with Harris’s shares at 42.8%.

The large swing in betting odds has created shock waves that are being felt in the financial markets on the eve of the election.

Here’s where things stand for five parts of the Trump Trade.

(1) Treasury yields are falling

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 12 basis points on Monday to 4.275 percent after the weekend survey surprise.

A rise in Treasury yields since the Fed cut interest rates in September has reflected the market’s belief that a second Trump presidency looks likely and will be. an inflationary event due to his promises of high tariffs and mass deportations that would fuel prices and wage growth respectively.

In recent weeks, investors have priced yields higher on the belief that Trump’s policies will make it harder for the Fed to cut rates much further.

(2) The US dollar weakens

The dollar rallied in October as the odds of a Trump presidency grew and as markets saw potential for higher tariffs and interest rates to boost the currency against rivals.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of other major currencies, rose about 4 percent in October.

However, trading fell on Monday after Harris’ odds increased, with the U.S. dollar index falling nearly 1 percent to 103.55.

(3) Mexican peso wins

The peso has fallen sharply over the past month as Trump’s chances of winning the election have grown.

The former president is seen as likely to implement tough trade policies aimed at Mexico to “relocate” manufacturing from Mexico to the United States, a development that would hurt the peso.

Over the past month, the Mexican peso has lost 3 percent against the U.S. dollar, but has clawed back much of that loss since the polls and betting market moved toward Harris, gaining 1.5 percent on Monday.

(4) Bitcoin goes down

Bitcoin was among Trump’s hottest deals this year, thanks to the former president’s enthusiastic embrace of the crypto market.

Trump delivered the keynote address at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in July and attended a cryptotoken launch last month. He was seen as the “Crypto President” by the market and his victory made it so determined prospects for huge earnings in the price of the token.

While Harris has a positive attitude towards the bitcoin and crypto community, it has not been as strong as Trump’s.

Therefore, with Harris’ betting odds increasing over the weekend, bitcoin is down about 2% since Friday at $68,350.

(5) Trump Media shares fall

Perhaps the biggest Trump trade was Trump Media and Technology Groupthe parent company of social media platform Truth Social. The stock has started a meme-like rally in recent weeks as the former president strengthened his position in the betting markets and in the polls.

The evaluation of the company even eclipsed that of Elon Musk Xbased on latest update from Fidelity in August.

However, stocks have seen a sharp reversal since Trump’s chances of winning the election have declined. Shares of Truth Social fell as much as 5% on Monday and are down about 47% since last week.