Remember when we wrote this offseason that the Metropolitan Division would continue its downward trend this season? If not, here is the link to that article. While that seems to be true to an extent, it appears that this is incorrect in the first ten games of the 2024-25 season.

The bottom half of the Metropolitan Division isn’t looking particularly good, but the top half? Some of the best teams in the NHL could be in the top four in the Metro. Will this last? Time will tell, but there appears to be more strength in the division than we anticipated in 2024-25.

Capitals better than expected

i had Washington Capitals making the playoffs in the article I linked above with 94 points and a wild-card position. It’s early, but the Capitals look much better than a wild-card team. Their 55.64 expected goals percentage (xG%) is third in the NHL behind the Carolina Hurricanes and Los Angeles Kings.

I expected the Capitals to be a solid defensive team. This has been sustained in the first 11 games as they allow just 2.47 expected goals per 60 minutes. But what has been most surprising is how much offense it creates. They average 3.1 expected goals per 60, ranking fourth in the NHL.

Related: The Islanders’ new top line isn’t enough to make a difference

The Capitals are scoring at an outrageous rate, averaging 3.99 goals per 60 minutes. It is almost certainly due to the regression from this number, and analysis of some people’s statistics suggests that it will come. The Capitals have five players who are 21 percent or better, and none of them are Alex Ovechkin.

Shooting percentages are up around the league, so maybe there is some level of sustainability for the Capitals lighting the lamp. But it seems unlikely they’ll continue to have five players shooting 21 percent or better. Offense will drop to a more reasonable level, closer to xG/60, which could also regress. But even then, this team looks legit.

The Capitals are 8-3-0 through their first 11 games, and it’s no fluke. He may finish in a wild-card spot, but he looks good enough to compete for a top-three position, and maybe comfortably.

What hurricanes fall?

One thing I think I seem to have gotten right in my article above is that people were too quick to talk about the Hurricanes going down. They lost many key players from last year’s team (Stefan Noesen, Brady Skjei, Brett Fish, Jake Guentzel and Teuvo Teravainen), but they didn’t miss a beat.

As mentioned above, the Hurricanes lead the NHL in xG%. They may be Corsi and xG spammers, but to me at least, that doesn’t take away from the fact that they are an excellent team. That speaks well of head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s system, at least in the regular season. But they also have a lot of talent.

Seth Jarvis is one of the bright young players in this league, while Sebastian Aho is one of the most underrated 1Cs. Meanwhile, Martin Necas has 18 points in his first ten contests. I’m skeptical the production will last, but we know he’s a capable top-six player.

The Hurricanes are also starting to include popular prospects like Jackson Blake in contention; he has five points in his first ten games, so the talent is there. They are 8-2-0 through their first ten games and look set to once again compete for first place in the Metro with the New York Rangers.

Rangers look like the team we expected

The Rangers are who I thought they were until now. They have a strong power play and will get excellent goaltending from Igor Shesterkin and Jonathan Quick most of the time. The only concern I would have if I were a Rangers fan is their defense.

They’ve only played 11 games, so this will likely balance out, as will the Capitals offense, but this is not a group the Rangers want to be in as the season progresses. They give up 3.06 expected goals per 60 five-on-five, the fifth-worst rate in the NHL. The only four teams that have been worse defensively are the Montreal Canadiens, Anaheim Ducks, Pittsburgh Penguins and San Jose Sharks.

Right now, they look like four lottery teams. The Rangers won’t be close to a lottery team, but they could run into some trouble later in the season if the defense doesn’t improve. However, it would be hard to argue that they are not competitors.

what are devils

I’m having a hard time getting a read on the New Jersey Devils to start this season. They have played the most games in the NHL at 14 and had a busy October schedule that included opening the year in Prague as part of the NHL Global Series.

The Devils’ numbers look pretty solid. They have a 52.3 xG percentage and are playing much better defense than they did a season ago. But I’m not sure how good this team is right now. Nico Hischier is off to a hot start, but Jack Hughes doesn’t look like Jack Hughes yet. That’s not necessarily a surprise, given that he had offseason shoulder surgery. But there are signs that it’s coming for him, and once it does, the Devils could start to take off.

If there’s one thing that seems certain about the Devils, it’s that they’re better than last season. I don’t think there’s any question about that, but how good they are remains to be seen. Still, they look like a top-four team in the Metro, so they’ll likely be back in the playoffs this season.

Now About the bottom of the subway

I won’t go through each one in as much detail as above, but here you can see a growing gap between the top four and the bottom four teams in the Metro. The four teams in the top half of the Metro look like playoff teams, while the bottom four do not.

The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a fun story to start this season, but regression is coming. They are scoring 3.42 goals per 60 while averaging 2.34 expected goals per 60, so they will likely sit last in the Metro.

The New York Islanders have some solid base numbers; their 55.13 xG% ranks fourth in the NHL. But they have some problems. One) The bug hit them hard. Mathew Barzal and Adam Pelech are gone for 4-6 weeks while Anthony Duclair is on long-term injured reserve.

Two) They cannot score goals; they were sent off four times in 12 games. Even when Barzal and Duclair were in the lineup, scoring was a chore. Now, without them for an extended period of time, things could quickly go off the rails for the residents.

And what about the two Pennsylvania teams? The Pittsburgh Penguins defense is a mess, just like last season; only the Ducks and Canadiens give up more expected goals per 60 than the Penguins. It looks like their time as a playoff contender is over.

As for the Philadelphia Flyers, it’s clear they overachieved a season ago. Now, it looks more like the team everyone expected in 2023-24. Their underlying numbers are among the worst in the NHL; their 45.79 xG% ranks 28th. They might be the worst team in the Metro, especially since it looks like getting saves will be an issue most nights.

Is the playoff division already forming?

It’s early in the season, but a clear divide is forming in the metro. You have the Hurricanes, Capitals, Rangers and Devils looking like playoff contenders, and in the case of the Capitals and Hurricanes, better than many anticipated before the season. The battle for top four positioning among these four teams could be a gauntlet.

Then there’s the bottom half of the division, which may be a little worse than anticipated. The Islanders are riddled with injuries and can’t score, while the Penguins, Flyers and Blue Jackets look like lottery teams. It is time for these trends to change. After all, most teams have only played 10-12 games, but it looks like Metro is already settling into what could be a playoff run.

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Advanced statistics from Natural Stats Trick