An extended area of ​​low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea is becoming more organized, and the National Hurricane Center is initiating advisories for the system beginning at 4 p.m. Sunday.

The disturbance is called Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen, a designation used by the National Hurricane Center to mark a system that has not yet met criteria for a tropical depression or storm, but is expected to make landfall within 48 hours. which requires issuing alerts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen has maximum sustained winds estimated at 35 mph and is moving north at 6 mph. The disturbance is located 325 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica. The next name on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane list is Rafael.

A hurricane signal has been issued for the Cayman Islands: Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is forecast to become a tropical storm as it approaches Jamaica through Monday, with hurricane conditions possible in the Cayman Islands Tuesday through Wednesday.

“This system is expected to become a tropical depression this evening and steady strengthening is forecast,” the National Hurricane Center says. The first forecast track calls for future Rafael to become a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches western Cuba on Wednesday.

Regardless of tropical storm development, this system will bring very heavy rain, tropical storm force winds, storm surge, and heavy surf to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and southern Cuba over the next few days.

“Precipitation totals are between 3 and 6 inches, with up to 9 inches locally expected. Flooding may occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with possible mudslides,” the National Hurricane Center says.

While there is uncertainty about the forecast later in the week, the hurricane center warns that “heavy rain will spread northward into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week.”

Forecasters say those with interests in the Florida Keys should closely monitor the latest information and advisories. “The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm later this week, but given the uncertainties in the long-range forecast, it is too early to determine what impact, if any, it could have place,” says the hurricane center.

Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating this system and have two more missions planned in the next 24 hours.

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