Global markets had a mixed week, weighed down by geopolitical concerns and changes in US jobs data.

In October 2024, the US added just 12,000 jobs, the smallest increase since 2020, after adding 254,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1% and average hourly wages rose 4.0% from last year. This sluggish job growth was due to inclement weather and strikes, particularly at Boeing.

The Euro was one of the best performers the previous week thanks to upbeat economic data from the Eurozone. In October, the euro zone inflation rate was 1.7%, the lowest since April 2021, mainly due to lower energy prices. Preliminary GDP growth for Q3 2024 was 0.4%, with some countries growing, while Germany is expected to contract slightly. The unemployment rate remained steady at 6.3 percent, down from 6.6 percent last year, indicating a strong labor market. PMI data showed mixed results, with manufacturing struggling while the services sector expanded.

The outcome of the US election and the impact on the US dollar-

Some analysts believe Trump’s policies could temporarily strengthen the dollar due to expected economic growth. However, others warn that continued uncertainty and possible trade conflicts could hurt confidence in the dollar over time. The key will be how tax spending and inflation affect the future value of the dollar.

Market expectations indicate that if Kamala Harris becomes president, the Federal Reserve could continue to cut interest rates, especially if inflation remains low. Lower interest rates typically weaken the dollar because they lower returns on dollar investments. However, if its policies boost economic growth without causing too much inflation, it could help the dollar remain strong over time.

US election result and impact on gold-

As of November 3, 2024, the US presidential election is just days away, scheduled for November 5. The race is very close between Democratic Vice President Kamala
Harris and former President Donald Trump. More than 75 million people voted early, showing strong interest in the election. Both candidates are focusing their efforts in key states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, where polls show a tight race.

By the end of October 2024, gold prices had risen to a record high of $2,771 per ounce. Analysts say a Trump victory could push gold prices further higher on worries about inflation from his planned tariffs, particularly a 60 percent tax on Chinese goods. This situation could cause more people to buy gold as a safe investment against rising prices and economic problems.

If Kamala Harris wins and her government is seen as stable and efficient, it could reduce demand for gold, which people typically buy during uncertain times. Analysts believe she could keep interest rates low to help the economy, which usually supports gold prices. However, if a strong economy leads to a stronger dollar, gold could become less attractive to investors.

The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPCSC) will meet on November 4-8, 2024, and this meeting could greatly affect China’s economy and investor confidence. It is particularly important because it comes during the week of the US presidential election and amid difficult economic times for China.

FOMC Monetary Policy-

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on November 6-7, 2024. This follows their last meeting on September 17-18, 2024, where they made important decisions on monetary policy. Analysts expect a cut of 0.25%, which would lower the federal funds rate to 4.50% from the current rate of 4.75% to 5.00%.