Advancing north from the ruins of Vuhledar, the powerful Russian 20th Motorized Rifle Division—with perhaps 10,000 troops—hits the 2,000-strong Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade, relying on the division’s superior numbers to destroy the exhausted paratroopers.

The Russians’ goal: to drive the Ukrainian brigade from the village of Illinka, 20 miles west of Donetsk, in the region of the same name. If Illinka and the surrounding settlements fell, Russian troops could drive north and surround the Ukrainian garrison in Karakhove, a key position for Ukrainian defense in the southern Donetsk region.

“The situation is almost critical” reported Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian drone operator. The 79th Air Assault Brigade “is under (a) massive enemy push” that began about two weeks ago.

The paratroopers and their supporting drone units have potentially taken out dozens of Russian vehicles – first, the BMP-3 fresh from the factory. And then, as the modern BMP-3s began to wear out, the older BMP-2s and MT-LBs.

The vehicular massacre on the road to Illinka helped push Russian losses to record levels. Analyst Andrew Perpetua counted 206 Russian vehicles were destroyed, damaged and abandoned on Saturday. He counted only 49 Ukrainian casualties on the same day.

But the Kremlin has discovered a winning strategy at some point and is clearly willing to trade vehicles and troops for territory.

The strategy is simple but effective, explained Ukrainian journalist Stanislav Aseyev. “The Russians continue to successfully use the ‘bag’ tactic, bypassing our positions on three sides and leaving a narrow ‘neck’ for retreat,” Aseyev he wrote. “As a result, even in combat-ready units, encirclement panic often sets in, leading to troop withdrawal.”

It doesn’t help the Ukrainian war effort that its forces are stretched to the east as they try to maintain control of their 270-mile salient in western Russia’s Kursk region. That important one, which Kiev can hope to use as a bargaining chip in future peace negotiations, is under increasing pressure not only from Russian troops but also from thousands of North Korean reinforcements.

The twenty Ukrainian battalions in Kursk, which include some of Kiev’s best troops and vehicles, would be more useful in Donetsk, Kriegsforscher argued. “While we are losing so much ground in (the) Donetsk (area), I wonder: What are they doing in (the) Kursk (area)?”

“From the very first day of the operation I was strongly against it,” Kriegsforscher wrote. “My opinion has not changed.”

Kiev’s defense ministry is scrambling to form new brigades to bolster the crumbling front line. But the best of these brigades is still in preparation. And there not enough modern vehicles to equip them all.