The National Hurricane Center has labeled the disorganized system over the Caribbean Sea Potential Tropical Cyclone 18. This label is given to systems that are still very disorganized but have a high potential to develop and become stronger. Most importantly, this label allows the National Hurricane Center to officially issue advisories to warn the public of impending impacts in the future.

This is the same area we have been monitoring for several days and hurricane hunters are currently investigating.
This system has a good chance of becoming the next named system of the season. Rafael is the next name on the list.

In the short term, the Central Caribbean islands can expect heavy rain early in the week as this system moves mainly north. Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central Cuba, and eventually eastern Cuba will be directly impacted by this system.

Early warnings from the Hurricane Center show this system will become a tropical storm by late Sunday night or early Monday. The sea surface waters in this region of the Caribbean are still warm and can support tropical development. Wind shear should also remain relatively low, which could make this (eventual) tropical storm stronger.

The National Hurricane Center’s official track shows the storm gaining hurricane status by Wednesday as it approaches eastern Cuba and emerging into the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday night as a Category 1 hurricane. Of course, it will depend on how much interaction with the land has this system. The greater the land friction, the more it will move across the Gulf. The high pressure system will break and open a channel for this system to continue moving north. Remember this is the inflection point we’ll be watching closely wherever the high pressure system (the same one that brought us some pretty nice weather the last few days) moves east and breaks, opening a path for this system to move north. .

The US Model (GFS) shows this pattern intensifying into a strong tropical system or Category 1 hurricane as it approaches Cienfuegos and Matanzas in central Cuba. The European model moves this slower system between Sunday and Wednesday. By late Tuesday, a tropical storm passes just east of Isla de la Juventud. It shows the system merging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and staying there for several days between Wednesday and Friday.

After Friday, the Euro shows that the system is slowly creeping west. At the same time, the US GFS model has this system between Louisiana and Mississippi late Friday or Saturday morning as a tropical storm. Remember that the water near the immediate coast and a little further away has been cooler in recent weeks, so the water temperatures would greatly weaken any storm as it approaches the coast, any coast along the Gulf.

We will continue to monitor this system and the rest of the tropics over the next week. There is a chance for another weak tropical system to follow, traveling just north of the Caribbean and possibly increasing moisture over Florida for next weekend. There are currently no tropical threats in South Carolina.

Below is the Spanish version
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El Centro Nacional de Huracanes labeled the disorganized system over the Mar Caribe as Ciclón Tropical Potencial 18. This label relates to systems that are still very disorganized, but with a high potential to develop more and more. Most importantly, this tag allows the National Hurricane Center to officially initiate notices for publicity on impending impacts that are covered.

It is an area that we are in monitored condition during several days and the lodgers of Huracanes, currently. This system has a high probability of conversion to the next season name system. Rafael is the next name on the list.

In the short term, las islas del Caribe central can expect torrential precipitation at the beginning of the week, a measure that is the system moves mainly to the north. Jamaica, las Islas Caimán, el centro de Cuba and, finally, he is de Cuba suffered impacts directors of this system.

El primer boletín del Centro Nacional de Huracanes indicates that this system will turn into a tropical storm by the end of the domingo night or the beginning of the month. Las aguas superficiales del mar in this region del Caribe, including are cálidas and can support tropical development. La cizalladura del viento también must remain relatively low, lo que podría hacer que esta (eventual) tropical storm sea más fuerte.

The official trajectory of the Centro Nacional de Huracanes shows that the storm will ganará category of huracan el miércoles a medida that it is approaching Cuba and will emergerá hacia el Golfo de México el miércoles from the night as a category 1 huracan. Por supuesto, dependerá de cuánta interacción cu la tierra tenga is the system. The more friction with the earth, the more mellado will move sobre el Golfo. That high pressure system will likely break and open a channel for this system to continue moving north. Recuerde que este is el point de inflexión que staremos observando de cerca unde el sistema de alta pressure (el mismo que nos a traído un climat bastante agradable los ultimientos days) se mueva hacia el este and se breaka, opening a way for this. se mueva hacia el norte.

El American model (GFS) shows that this model intensifies into a powerful tropical system or category 1 huracan a degree that approaches Cienfuegos y Matanzas in the center of Cuba. El European model moves is system más lentamente between el domingo and el miércoles. A tropical storm will pass just over Isla de la Juventud in fines del martes. El system will merge with el Golfo de México oriental and will remain there during a couple of days between miércoles and el viernes.

After viernes, el Euro shows that the system se arrastrará lentamente towards oeste. At the same time, the US GFS model has this system between Louisiana and Mississippi late Friday or Saturday morning as a tropical storm. Recuerde que el agua close to the immediate costa and a little more lejos has been more afraid in recent weeks, in that las water temperature debilitarían to a great extent any tormenta a medida that approaches the coast, any costa a lo largo . del Golfo.

We are looking to monitor this system and he resto de los trópicos in the next week. There is a possibility that another weak tropical system could follow, traveling just north of the Caribbean and possibly increasing humidity in Florida for the next week. Por ahora, no hay ningun tropical queue system can threaten Carolina del Sur.