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Three reasons the Packers will beat the Lions

Online Niel November 3, 2024

GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are 2.5 point underdog at FanDuel Sportsbook for Sunday’s NFC North showdown against the Detroit Lions.

How rare is that? This will be Matt LaFleur’s 50th home game coached. He has been shut out seven times, including last year’s 34-20 loss to the Lions.

Here are three reasons why the Packers will beat the Lions this time.

1. Josh Jacobs

There’s a reason Jacobs didn’t get a ton of touches in some games. So that he can be the best for games like this.

Whether it’s Jordan Love or Malik Willis at quarterback, the offense starts with Jacobs. Jacobs led in the Week 2 win against the Colts when Willis started and last week at Jacksonville when Willis played most of the second half.

Detroit’s run defense is its only weakness. Well, weak might be a strong word, but the Lions are 22nd with 4.66 yards allowed per carry this season and 19th in schedule-adjusted expected points. They have given up more than 130 yards rushing in three of their last four games.

Fixing it was a priority this week.

“Yeah, it’s something we’re taking note of,” Lions coach Dan Campbell told reporters before Wednesday’s practice. “We have to be able to attack the perimeter, set edges and let our linebackers flow and make plays. We’ll make stuffing (at Thursday’s practice), we’ll bring it, and that’s the best way.

“Do you want to get better at it, do you want to work at it? You have to work on it at full speed, just like in a game situation and get some live reps. So we’re going to keep doing that because we know teams are going to keep attacking us like that.”

Jacobs leads the NFL in rushing and touchdowns and is fourth in rushing yards. Of 44 quarterbacks with at least 50 carries, Jacobs ranks eighth in 3.52 yards after contact, according to Pro Football Focus, and 10th in missed tackle percentage, according to Sports Info Solutions.

Detroit’s defense ranks 27th in turnover percentage, according to PFF.

“Very physical. They fly as a unit,” Jacobs said. “They have a lot of guys who have played a lot of high level ball. It will be one of their games. It will be a playoff game. We will see. We’ll see how it goes.”

Jacobs has broken 31 tackles this season, according to PFF, compared to 28 all of last year. A few yards after contact is his career best.

It’s not just about Jacobs. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had to deal with the Packers’ rushing attack led by Aaron Jones. Jacobs brought a new dimension to Green Bay’s offense, Glenn said.

“There’s something about getting a back that has pellets on the wall and changing the mindset,” Glenn told reporters Thursday. “To see what he’s like in the NFL and how violent and physical and the runner he is, you just know their offensive line is looking forward to blocking for that guy. There is a check on how they operate in terms of the violence and physical nature of the game because of who they have running the ball.

“So it’s going to be a challenge for us and we have to do everything we can to make sure we stop that because if you let that happen, it’s not good for a defense to allow a team to run the ball and then be able to have the passing plays that they have with these receivers that they have. So we have to do a good job of that.”

2. Jayden Reed

One of those receivers is Jayden Reed, who has become the Packers’ biggest receiving threat. “This guy is a play guy,” Campbell said. Reed leads the teams with 31 receptions, 507 yards and a 16.4-yard average.

According to PFF, 65 receivers were targeted at least 30 times. Reed is second with 8.5 yards per catch and is tied for 15th with six missed tackles. His 15 rushing yards (rushes and catches) are just three behind Derrick Henry’s league-leading total.

Of note for this game is that Reed did most of his damage in the slot, where he is eighth with 21 receptions, second with 381 yards, second with 18.1 yards per catch, tied fourth with three touchdowns, sixth with 8.2 YAC per catch and second with a 142.0 passer rating when targeted.

The Lions are vulnerable in the slot with Amik Robertson. Of the 28 defensive backs to play at least 100 slot coverage snaps, he has the fifth-most yards allowed, the third-most yards per snap and a 101.1 passer rating , according to PFF.

Fantasy football isn’t real football, but the Lions have allowed the most fantasy football points to receivers, according to Razzball.

In the second round of the 2023 draft, the Lions traded in a deal with the Packers for safety Brian Branch. The Packers traded up one more time before selecting Reed.

“I think the vision was what you’re seeing now with the way he’s playing,” Campbell said. “Here’s what you knew; He was competitive, he was explosive, he had speed. … Can locate it, sticky hands, fiery blocker, competitive. Man, he will follow you in the running game. And he’s a very smart, very smart player. He’s coming into his own and continues to get better, and to me he’s a force and we’re going to have to be ready for him and those receivers.”

3. Take away

The Packers are 6-2 in large part because of Jeff Hafley’s defense, which is No. 1 with 19 takeaways, No. 1 with nine fumble recoveries and No. 2 with 10 interceptions.

Detroit, on the other hand, is 2nd in turnover margin at plus-10. Only three teams have fewer giveaways than Detroit’s five. The Lions lost just one fumble and Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3.

The Packers are having what they call a “ball meeting” to highlight the importance of taking care of the football. Leos place a similar emphasis. So much so that a member of the Titans staff tried to get the secrets to success from Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson after Detroit won the turnover battle last week 4-0.

“It’s a constant game as coaches,” Johnson told reporters Thursday. “It gets old, it gets redundant, but at some point these guys think they hear it in the back of their minds when they take the ball down the field.

“We have a quarterback right now who is playing very smart, healthy football. He takes care of the ball. If he presents it on the field, he will throw it; he has no problem breaking a dagger or throwing a pole across the field. But the teams we keep seeing get all that depth, he’ll check. So he’s very smart and deliberate with how he’s attacking coverages right now. So that’s about keeping the ball out of danger from an interception standpoint.”

Goff is playing at about the highest level imaginable, but he’s been sacked eight times in the past two games and fumbled four times. So there could be opportunities for the kind of Edgerrin Cooper-esque sack/tape that influenced last week’s win in Jacksonville.

“I think it starts up front, just like any game,” Hafley said. “If you can’t stop the run, it’s going to be a long day. Their offensive line is probably the best I’ve seen, and then they have two really good quarterbacks. So we really have to defend the run. They are explosive, they are strong and their offensive line is very good.

“They built it the right way. They built it from the inside out, but it has to start with the running. Obviously, they have good wide receivers, they have a very good tight end and the quarterback is as effective right now as any quarterback in the NFL. I think he is training very well. I think their whole staff does a great job with their scheme and then what they’ve done with the quarterback this year in terms of his efficiency, it’s been very impressive.”

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