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    • Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, tracking path and spaghetti patterns
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    Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, tracking path and spaghetti patterns

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    A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was expected to be dispatched to the western Caribbean on Sunday, forecasters said in their Tropical Weather Outlook this morning, to obtain data on Invest 97L, which has been tracked for several days.

    National Hurricane Center meteorologists think so the storm is very likely to form in the next 48 hours.

    NHC meteorologists say there is an 80% chance. Invest 97L will develop over the next two days over the southwest Caribbean Sea. A system farther east near Puerto Rico is moving east and could produce storms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into Invest 97L.

    AccuWeather meteorologists said on Sunday that a a tropical storm is likely to develop by Monday.

    Subtropical Storm Patty was moving quickly east toward the Azores on Sunday, which are not under a Tropical Storm Warning. The center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores today.

    There are no threats to land on the US mainland today and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.

    “Most reliable guidance suggests that the western flank of that leading high pressure will continue to extend across the Gulf, keeping a potential storm moving westward or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” Ryan said Truchalat, meteorologist owner of Weathertiger, which reports for the USA TODAY Network.

    “A minority of model ensemble members have a faster and stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm near the Yucatan or Cuba could theoretically then turn northeast toward Florida late next week or next weekend”.

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    The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.

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    Here are the details of what’s available as of 5am November 3rd:

    Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane headed for Florida?

    Location: 37.5 N, 25.5 W about 125 miles southeast of Lajes Air Force Base, Azores

    Maximum sustained winds: 50 mph

    Present Movement: East at 18 mph

    Minimum central pressure: 990 MB

    The center of subtropical storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 north, longitude 25.5 west. The storm is moving east near 18 mph and is expected to move east to east-northeast over the next couple of days.

    On its forecast track, Patty’s center is expected to move near the southeastern Azores in the next few hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. A weakening is expected over the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.

    Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly south and southwest of the center.

    Hazards affecting the terrain:

    WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in parts of the Azores today.

    PRECIPITATION: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches in the Azores through Sunday.

    SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores for the next two days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

    Conditions for tropical development near Florida. Will Invest 97L Become Tropical Storm Raphael?

    The waters of the Caribbean are warm enough for tropical developmenteven this late in the season. But whether it’s wind shear or disruptive breezes, forecasters say they’re watching to determine what’s next. AccuWeather is calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday evening.

    “The tropical storm is expected to make a northeasterly turn through Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy rain and strong winds to those islands. It is not excluded that it becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean before reaching Jamaica or Cuba. ” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert.

    There are a few options on the table for the tropical storm’s path.

    “The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the US next week,” said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist.

    “If this jet stream depression pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to engulf the tropical feature and possibly pull it into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and southern Florida,” Rayno explained. “But if the jet stream lags westward, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far west as Louisiana or Texas. There is also the possibility that it will continue west. and diminishes over southern Mexico”.

    Spaghetti models Invest 97L

    Invest 97L Caribbean status

    Invest 97 liters in the Southwest Caribbean Sea: Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of ​​low pressure.

    Gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves generally north-northwest over the central and western Caribbean Sea.

    Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is possible over portions of adjacent land areas in the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

    Interests in the western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings may be required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.

    • Chance of formation in 48 hours: high, 80%.
    • Chance of formation in 7 days: high, 90 percent.

    What else is there and how likely are they to consolidate?

    Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure several hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwest Atlantic.

    Slow development of this system is possible during the day as it moves west toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. That system is expected to be absorbed into Invest 97L over the Caribbean Sea by Monday evening, ending its chances of development.

    • Chance of forming in 48 hours: Low, 10 percent.
    • Chance of forming in 7 days: Low, 10 percent.

    Who might be affected?

    Forecasters say 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected in Jamaica, north to Cuba. Heavier rain of 4-8 inches may occur near the storm track over western Cuba and central Jamaica, with an AccuWeather high of 14 inches over the highest terrain.

    “This rain may lead to flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.

    As the tropical storm moves north and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with gusts of 40 to 60 mph forecast.

    Weather observations and warnings issued in Florida

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    When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

    The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

    The Atlantic Basin includes the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.

    Countdown Clock: When Will Hurricane Season End?

    Interactive map: hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city

    What’s next?

    We’ll continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for ours special subscription offers here.

    (This story has been updated to add new information.)

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