ANKARA

Just days before the US presidential election, polling averages show a tight race between the two candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both vying for leadership in critical states, according to the Washington Post.

Polls in seven key states — Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan — are expected to be decisive for each candidate’s path to the White House.

Harris leads in four of the swing states – Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, with the latest poll showing a less than one-point lead for Harris in Nevada and Pennsylvania.

Trump maintains a slight lead in North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.

Harris driving

In Nevada, Harris holds a slim lead, estimated at less than a percentage point, and the outcome could vary significantly, with potential margins ranging from an eight-point lead for Trump to a nine-point lead for Harris, according to the Washington Post.

Historical data shows that Nevada polls have sometimes underrepresented Democratic support; for example, in 2020, Joe Biden was projected to lead by five points, but ultimately secured victory by a narrower margin of two points.

Pennsylvania features an equally tight race, with Harris leading by less than a point.

Historical data from past elections shows that polls have occasionally underestimated Republican support here, with Trump in 2016 beating projected numbers by nearly five points.

In 2020, polls suggested a four-point lead for Biden, although he won by a margin of less than one.

In Wisconsin, Harris holds a narrow two-point lead, though projections suggest the outcome could swing from a six-point lead for Trump to a 10-point lead for Harris, underscoring potential volatility.

Polling history in Wisconsin shows a pattern of underestimating Republican support; notably, in 2016, Trump captured the state despite trailing in pre-election polls.

This year’s results may follow a similar trajectory, depending on voter turnout and last-minute swings in support.

In Michigan, Harris leads by a modest three points, though projections indicate the race could swing from a five-point lead for Trump to a 10-point lead for Harris, reflecting the state’s volatility.

The inaccuracies of previous polls, such as in 2016 when Bill Clinton was ahead by four points but ultimately lost, underscore the challenges in forecasting results in this battleground.

Trump leads

Trump shows a slight lead in North Carolina, holding a one-point lead.

Estimates in North Carolina vary widely, from a nine-point lead for Trump to a seven-point lead for Harris, according to the Washington Post.

Historically, polls in North Carolina have often underestimated Republican performance, as seen with both Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012 beating their poll predictions.

In Georgia and Arizona, Trump holds a narrow two-point lead in each state, although estimates range from a 10-point lead for Trump to a six-point lead for Harris, while in Arizona the possible margins widen from Trump by 10 points. to Harris by six points.

Polling trends from past elections show frequent underestimations of Republican support in these states, which could play in Trump’s favor again if similar trends continue.

The final result is extremely uncertain

Despite Harris’ slight national lead, these close statewide averages mean the final outcome remains highly uncertain.

The Washington Post analysis points out that these averages should be viewed with caution, given the polls’ typical margin of error of about 3.5 points. Historical comparisons from the 2020, 2016, and 2012 elections show that polling errors sometimes led to significant underestimations, particularly in favor of Republican candidates. If similar polling inaccuracies occur this year, it could swing the results in states currently swinging toward Harris or leave Trump with an unexpected advantage.

The survey data, compiled from national firms such as CBS News, the Economist/YouGov and ABC-Ipsos, shows a fluctuating trend since January.

Early polls often showed Trump in a stronger position; however, Harris gained ground following Biden’s decision to leave the race in July.

Since then, polls have shown a gradual tilt in Harris’ favor nationally, but mixed results in battleground states.

Polls, just an image of public opinion

Given that polling averages only provide a snapshot of public opinion at any given time, campaigning efforts in these final days could prove critical.

Both candidates are doubling down on key swing states, trying to sway undecided voters and boost turnout among their respective bases.

As history has shown, easy poll results can be quickly flipped on Election Day, especially in states with slim margins.

Analysts say that while Harris’ current lead in the polls may offer some edge, the race remains highly unpredictable.

With every battleground state falling within the typical margin of error, either candidate could secure victory by a few percentage points in their favor.

As Americans head to the polls, the final tally will reveal whether Harris’ slight national advantage and slim state advantages will hold, or whether Trump’s narrow margins in key states will ensure his path back to the White House.

The 2024 election promises to be a tight and intense finish, with each vote carrying significant weight in determining the nation’s future leadership.

Battleground states are essential because the US does not directly elect its presidents. Instead, the process is conducted through the Electoral College, where 538 representatives cast their votes according to their states’ results.

A candidate must get 270 Electoral College votes to win. Electors are allocated to states based on their population, and most states give all of their electors to whichever candidate wins the state in the general election.

The Anadolu Agency website contains only part of the news provided to subscribers in the AA News Broadcasting System (HAS) and in summarized form. Please contact us for subscription options.