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Shock poll shows Harris ahead of Trump in Iowa by a 3-point swing to the vice president
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Shock poll shows Harris ahead of Trump in Iowa by a 3-point swing to the vice president

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by three points in the final Iowa poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register three days before the election.

The shock poll showed a seven-point change from Trump to Harris since September when he had a four-point lead over the vice president (47% to 43%) in the same poll.

“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducted the survey, told the daily on Saturday. “She has clearly jumped into a leadership position.”

The survey was conducted between October 28-31, and Harris’s lead is within the margin of error of 3.4%.

However, the poll appears to be an outlier. Another poll from Emerson College released Saturday, showed Trump with a 10-point lead (53% to 43%) and maintains a decent lead in other polls.

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Harris and Trump's split

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by three points in the final Iowa poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register three days before the election. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin; Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, which measures support in the Hawkeye State, is nationally recognized and its final results mirrored the state’s results in the 2016 and 2020 elections, according to the Des Moines Register.

The 2016 poll showed Trump with a seven-point lead over Hillary Clinton, and the 2020 poll showed him with the same lead over President Biden.

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Trump's show of support in Iowa

A Trump supporter’s Halloween display in Iowa. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Iowa, which is not considered a swing state, is geographically close to the Rust Belt cradle States of Pennsylvania and Michigan and shares a border with Wisconsin.

The same poll in June showed Trump with a sizable 18-point lead over Biden before dropping out of the race in July after a shocking debate performance.

The Nov. 2 poll shows Harris increasing his support among women in a race with a historic gender gap as the vice president has placed the issue of abortion at the center of his campaign, according to the newspaper.

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The remaining 9% of those surveyed said they would vote for another candidate, were not sure who they would vote for, or did not intend to vote. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who dropped out of the race as an independent and endorsed Trump, got 3 percent in the poll.

Trump campaign website published a memo on the Des Moines Register poll, the RNC calling it a “clearly aberrant”.

“Emerson College, launched today, much more closely reflects the state of Iowa’s current electorate and does so with much more transparency in their methodology,” the memo said.

“To their credit, the Emerson College poll has a R+4 party split (below 2020 exit polls of R+10) and a +8 2020 Trump recall margin that lines up with reported returns,” the experts explained. “Emerson shows Trump ahead of Harris 53-43 in their poll. In the Des Moines Register poll, they say Harris leads seniors (age 65 and over) by 19 points (55-36). In 2020, President Trump had 54 seniors -45 over Biden, according to CNN exit polls.”

Fox News Digital’s Andrea Margolis contributed to this report.