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    • Who wins the 2024 election? Allan Lichtman predicts the next president
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    Who wins the 2024 election? Allan Lichtman predicts the next president

    Online Niel Posted on

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    Historical Allan Lichtmanwho has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still believes Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump but that he feels particularly nervous this year.

    “I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I get butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”

    Lichtman said that joint survey of candidates in key swing states it doesn’t make it jittery. He has his confidence “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes that Harris will become the next president of the country. However, in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel, the presidential prognosticator explained that he is concerned about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system hasn’t been around that long.

    “For the entire history of mankind, there has been almost no democracy. Nations were ruled by the divine right of kings, by birthright, or by sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”

    ➤ Allan Lichtman: The historian who accurately predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential elections is his 2024 pick

    Both presidential campaigns have portrayed their rival as a “threat to democracy” during the 2024 cycle. Trump called Harris a “communist” and Harris called Trump a “fascist”. A The Washington Post poll was released in June showed that more than 70 percent of Democratic and Republican voters rated threats to US democracy as “extremely important.”

    Who is Allan Lichtman?

    Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from American University in Washington, DC, Lichtman, 77, earned a Ph.D. majoring in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.

    He is best known for helping to establish the presidential prediction system that uses thirteen true or false statements. When five or fewer are false, the party’s incumbent candidate is expected to win. When six or more are false, the challenging side is expected to win.

    This year, Lichtman said at least eight of the keys Harris’ favor.

    Using this system, he correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, except for the famously close race of 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.

    What are the 13 keys?

    The keys and Lichtman’s assessment of each include:

    After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (False)

    There is no serious contest for the party’s nomination in office. (True)

    The current party candidate is the incumbent president. (False)

    There is no significant third-party challenger. (True)

    The short-term economy is strong. (True)

    Long-term economic growth has been as good as in the last two terms. (True)

    The party in the White House has made major changes in national politics. (True)

    There are no sustained social disturbances during the mandate. (True)

    White House administration and party unaffected by scandal (true)

    The incumbent administration does not suffer any major setbacks in foreign or military affairs. (false tilt)

    The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs. (True)

    The current party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)

    The challenger party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (True)

    Contact Rachel Barber at [email protected] and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

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