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    • Arizona voter turnout could be lower than in 2020, projections say
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    Arizona voter turnout could be lower than in 2020, projections say

    Online Niel Posted on

    Arizona is home to more than 4.3 million voters who are eligible to participate in this year’s general election, according to the latest numbers released by the Secretary of State’s voter registration office.

    How many of those registered will actually vote?

    The Arizona Republic estimates that about 77 percent of those eligible — about 3,370,000 people — could turn out, perhaps a few percentage points less than in the last 2020 presidential election.

    Reporters from the Republic’s data team have spent the past few months working with Christopher Weber, director of the Arizona Voter Project at the University of Arizonato model voter turnout in presidential elections. Weber has a PhD in political science and a background in statistics.

    With Weber’s guidance, reporters used a combination of five approaches — from simple to complex — to generate projections, then averaged them to estimate turnout. The data powering Republic’s models comes from the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office and L2, a research company that combines state voter registration data with demographic information about registered voters across the country.

    Republic, the estimates of political consultants fall in the same range

    At 77 percent, the Republican turnout estimate is within or a few percentage points above the ranges projected by some of the state’s political consultants.

    Paul Bentz, senior vice president of research at Arizona-based political consulting firm HighGround, said he expects turnout to be between 76 percent and 78 percent.

    In 2020, voter turnout was the highest in the 21st century all over the nation and in Arizona, where 80 percent of eligible voters showed up.

    “I look at the last presidential election and I recognize that the lowest level in years was 74 percent,” Bentz said. “So … somewhere between 74 and 80 percent is probably what we’re looking at. Assuming an increase in Republican enthusiasm compared to the first time Trump ran, and seeing that we’re seeing more Republicans willing to return early ballots…makes me think we’re in for more than the first Trump election, but maybe not as big as … Biden vs. Trump.”

    Track the votes Who’s ahead in Arizona’s largest county in the early election? Track the votes

    Sam Almy, a data strategist for Uplift Campaigns, estimates turnout to land around 75 percent, with an upper range of 77 percent. His estimate is based on comparing the share of early ballots returned in the last two presidential cycles with the share returned so far in the current one.

    Hot-button ballot initiatives — such as Proposition 207 on the legalization of recreational marijuana, which voters passed in 2020, or this year’s long-awaited Proposition 139 on abortion — won’t have a strong impact on voter turnout, a Almy said.

    “There is a small percentage of the electorate that votes exclusively for 139,” Almy said. “But at the same time, it’s not going to change (turnout), you know, 10-15 percent.”

    Arizona’s presidential races have come down to slim margins so far. President Joe Biden won the state four years ago with 10,457 votes — less than 1 percent of the total number of ballots cast.

    Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson said she believes abortion is a motivating factor for Democrats and seniors to vote. Her models brought voter turnout closer to where it was in 2016: about 74 percent or 75 percent, she said.

    “The sense of urgency is less today than it was in 2020, so I think it’s back to where it was in 2016, with one notable exception — which is abortion,” Pearson said. “These elections return to issues that have decided voter participation for 200 years: taxes, economy, security. ’20 and ’22 were the anomalies, because of COVID.”

    “Some of this is completely random human behavior”

    Ultimately, while data and information from past elections can help people understand what voting in Arizona might look like this year, the Republican estimate — and those of the consultants I spoke with — remain projections.

    No one is telling us how many voters will actually vote in this year’s general election.

    “There are two tools I use every day: one is sophisticated modeling based on a decade of voter behavior, and the other is my magic bullet,” Pearson said. She keeps the ball in the office, consulting him if he’s looking at things correctly. “Some of it is science, and some of it is completely random human behavior.”

    Readers can see the Republican turnout estimate, along with live updated vote counts and additional information on how we did it, at azcentral.com Nov. 5.

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