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Michigan has a number of competitive state races
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Michigan has a number of competitive state races

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In the November 2022 election, Governor Gretchen Whitmer won re-election, and Democrats wrested the state House and Senate from GOP control for the first time in 40 years. This fall’s election will decide the fate of the Democratic trifecta.

With their new power in Lansing, Democrats repealed Michigan right-to-work law and abortion restrictions. They overhauled Michigan’s tax system to provide help for pensioners and those on low incomes. They passed gun safety measures and PROTECTION for LGBTQ+ people in Michigan. They established a clean energy goal and it passed school budgets which include free meals for students.

Republicans campaigned against it corporate subsidies approved by Democrats to attract new electric vehicle jobs to the state. They also railed against Democratic opposition to making a temporary income tax reduction permanent. They threw away the most recent one the school budget which included no increase in per-pupil funding and new energy laws that give state regulators the power to override local zoning laws to install green energy projects.

“It’s going to be very close,” Adrian Hemond, CEO of Lansing-based consulting firm Grassroots Midwest, said of the race for state control. The possibility of a tie in the chamber is not out of the question, Hemond said: “I actually think that’s a reasonably likely outcome.”

Michigan is a battleground state in the presidential election. But the outcome of state legislative races can also have a big impact on the lives of Michigan residents. State legislators develop the state budget. They help set the political agenda in Lansing, from housing to criminal justice. They provide oversight of the state government. And their offices are often residents’ direct conduits to state government, Hemond said.

But the top of the ticket often has an impact on down-ballot races. In 2022, Democrats running for the state House benefited from Whitmer’s strong performance. Whitmer won by a margin of nearly 11 percentage points that year. An abortion rights measure was also on the ballot two years ago and received nearly 57 percent of the vote. This time, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, appears to be facing a tighter race than Whitmer did for governor, and there no proposals at the state level.

A number of competitive districts in the game

Democrats hold a slim majority in the Michigan House of Representatives. There are 110 seats in the State House. Democrats hold 56 of those seats and Republicans 54 of them. In one of the tightest races in 2022, for example, just 331 votes going to Republican Bob Howey over state Rep. Jaime Churches, D-Wyandotte, would have prevented a Democratic majority in the House.

The Democratic Party currently holds a two-seat majority but cannot afford to lose a single vote to the united GOP opposition because a bill requires the support of a majority of elected and sitting members. So to regain control of the state House, Republicans need to flip two seats from blue to red.

About a dozen districts — perhaps more — seem to be in play. From metro Detroit to Marquette, districts hosting close House races punctuate the state and could decide which party wins control. All but one state House seat is up for grabs: State Rep. Karen Whitsett, D-Detroit, who represents a safely Democratic district, is unopposed.

With their legacies at stake, the rulers let loose

Former Republican Gov. Rick Snyder has hit the campaign trail for GOP candidates for the state House. This election cycle, he has supported the GOP’s fundraising efforts.

“It’s great to be back in action helping House Republicans win a majority this election cycle,” Snyder told a room full of state GOP lawmakers and their supporters during an Oct. 24 stop in Rochester, D.C. Republican state representative Mark Tisdel. “This is about bringing Michigan back again.” Tisdel, of Rochester, faces Democrat Trevis Harrold in the competitive Oakland County district.

Whitmer — who succeeded Snyder — was right down the block that day, holding her own event to boost Democratic candidates for the state House. “We’re here because we know that the average person, the average small business owner, people are always looking for more opportunities to find their way to prosperity and to take care of their families and their employees,” she said on a stopover in Rochester. , according to story about the Gongwer event. “We’ve done a lot of good work, but there’s always more work to do.”

Whitmer reversed several Snyder-era policies. “I don’t take it personally,” Snyder told reporters at the Oct. 24 event in Rochester. But he said he’s generally concerned about where the state is headed, which he said prompted him to jump into the House Republican campaign.

Top ticket dynamics

But unlike Whitmer — who is a national co-chair of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign — Snyder doesn’t want to talk about the presidential race. Snyder support President Joe Biden in the 2020 election. But he won’t say publicly who he’s voting for this time.

“Because it would distract me from my work for the Michigan House,” Snyder said.

Whitmer’s event in Rochester was just wrapping up as the former GOP politician prepared to head to his next campaign stop. At Whitmer’s event, one souvenir was left behind: a Michigan-shaped foam hand named after Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Contact Clara Hendrickson: [email protected] or 313-296-5743. Follow X, formerly Twitter, @clarajanehen.

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