Some voters in Pennsylvania could be disrupted by rainy weather on Election Day, depending on where the polling place is located in the state.

As Election Day approaches, forecasters are refining their Nov. 5 weather forecasts across the country, and rainy weather could deter some voters from venturing to the polls in northwestern Pennsylvania. Probably voters in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to decide who wins the White House. Recent polls show a extremely close race between the former president Donald Trump and vice president Kamala Harris.

And while more than 1.6 million ballots have already been cast in Pennsylvania due to early voting and mail-in ballots, those waiting until Election Day could face rainy weather.

Depending on the speed of a storm system moving through the Pacific Northwest and across the state, some voters in northwestern Pennsylvania could experience rain as they try to cast their ballots Tuesday, AccuWeather reported. However, newer forecasts show that rain could miss Pennsylvania altogether.

Studies show that rainy weather benefits GOP

Inclement weather has a history of affecting people hoping to cast their ballots. In 2007, a study by the University of Georgia, the University of CaliforniaMerced and the University of Pittsburgh found that rainy weather deterred Democrats more than republicans. Voter turnout dropped 1 percent for every inch of rain. The snow also lowered voter turnout and was more likely to affect the elderly.

“In addition to its direct effect on voter turnout, we show that bad weather can affect election outcomes by significantly decreasing the Democratic presidential vote share to the benefit of Republicans,” the study said.

A more recent study in the journal Electoral studies in 2023, found that rainy weather was more likely to affect young voters aged 20 or younger and decreased their turnout by almost 6%.

A 2018 study published in Sage Journals similarly found that precipitation “decreases the vote share of the Democratic candidate by up to 2.08 percentage points, while grow THE Republican the candidate’s vote share by 1.00% point.”

However, said Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who lives in Ohio Newsweek that both Republican and Democratic voters feel committed to voting in this election, and that neither candidate is likely to benefit from bad weather in swing states. Barring a disaster-level event, Weaver doubts the rain will prevent members of either party from voting on Election Day.

He also said Trump supporters feel an “exuberance and energy” for their candidate that is “unparalleled in modern American politics.”

While those voters might be less likely to vote because of inclement weather during other election cycles, that won’t be the case with Trump on the ticket this year, Weaver said. “His supporters will move mountains to get to the polls because they see him as the solution to the problems facing America.”

Meanwhile, Weaver said, Harris supporters are motivated more by hate for Trump than love for Harris.

“Given how energized both parties are this year and given how common early voting has become, I don’t know that the weather will be as much of a factor as it might be in a different year,” he said. Weaver.

Harris could benefit by having a support base

As for this Tuesday, said Democratic strategist Carly Cooperman Newsweek that inclement weather could benefit Harris at the polls.

“Bad weather is likely to cause low-propensity voters — those who don’t vote historically or the least engaged — to stay home,” Cooperman said. “These are the voters that Trump is courting and how he’s building support beyond his base, so that would have an impact on Trump’s vote. Older voters may also be more inclined to stay home in bad weather, but older voters are more split between Trump and Harris. and many of these voters also vote early.

“Harris’ base of support tends to be among the more mainstream voter groups, and so she will be less affected by bad weather,” Cooperman said.

Who won Pennsylvania in 2020?

In 2020, Trump lost to the president Joe Biden in Pennsylvania by more than 80,000 votes, although Trump won the state in 2016.

As of Friday, polling aggregation site FiveThirtyEight showed Trump ahead of Harris, 47.9 percent to 47.6 percent in Pennsylvania.

Rain is also forecast for Michigan and Wisconsin, although forecasts show dry weather for North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.