Harris leads by two points, 50%-48%, in a Marist study which includes undecided voters who lean toward one candidate (margin of error 3.4 points) and by one point, 48%-47%, in a Washington Post POLL (margin of error 3.1 points), both released Friday, with the Post poll showing no movement in the race since the September poll.

Trump was up 50%-49% two-way Fox News poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania turned out Wednesday — well within three points of error — while the candidates are tied at 48 percent if respondents could choose third-party candidates (about 3 percent of voters chose another candidate).

Trump also has a 47%-46% lead in one Quinnipiac The poll of likely voters was released Wednesday (margin of error 2.1 points, and respondents are likely to choose other candidates), though Harris holds a narrow 49%-48% lead in a Cooperative Election Study POLL released this week (3,685 respondents, surveyed in a national survey of universities by YouGov).

Meanwhile, the race is dead even at 48%-48% in one CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters turn out Wednesday — while only 8 percent said they were undecided or might change their minds — and CBS/YouGov found a similar 49%-49% tie in a likely poll released Tuesday.

Turnout could play a role: Trump had a 47%-46% lead in one Monmouth poll of all registered voters was released Wednesday, but the race is tied 48%-48% among respondents who are highly motivated to vote, with Harris leading 48%-47% among people who voted most or all the 2014 general elections (margin of error 3.8 points).

Last week, Harris led Trump 50% to 48.2% among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning poll study (margin of error 3), and Harris was ahead 49%-47% in a school Washington Post/Schar POLL (margin of error 4.6), while Trump rose 49%-48% in a The Emerson Survey (margin of error 3.4).

Earlier this month, Harris led Trump by three points, 50%-47%, in a pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College POLLS released Oct. 12, while Trump rose 47%-46% from Sept. 28-Oct. 8 Wall Street Journal POLL registered voters who said they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for either candidate.

Polling averages close to tie with narrow Trump lead: Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.

Pennsylvania has more electoral votes, 19, than any other battleground, and Pennsylvanians routinely pick winners, voting for 10 of the last 12 White House winners — the candidate who won Pennsylvania also won Michigan and Wisconsin (the three states together they are known as the “blue wall”) in the last eight elections.

Pennsylvania is more likely to tilt the election than any other battleground state, according to statistician Nate Silver. election forecasting modelwhich also found that both candidates have more than an 85% chance of winning the election if they secure Pennsylvania.

Trump became the first Republican to win Pennsylvania since the 1980s in the 2016 election, and Biden — who is a native of Scranton, Pennsylvania — reversed the trend in 2020, with the state set to put him over the 270-vote threshold needed to win the elections. College

Pennsylvania is also important to Trump personally, as he was shot there while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14.

The state has a large share of white working-class voters, with nearly 75 percent of the population identifying as non-Hispanic white — a demographic Trump typically does well with, though Harris made inroads with white voters compared to his performance Biden in 2020. , trailing Trump by just three points nationally, according to the latest PBS News/NPR/Marist pollafter Trump won the demographic class by 12 points in 2020.