Our staff offers their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Tar Heels.

Another weekend, another embarrassing loss for Florida State. Falling by 3+ touchdowns to Miami is unacceptable in any year, even if this is probably the worst in program history. Most of the goodwill the Seminoles built up over the past two years has essentially been thrown away, and it’s clear that major changes are needed if Mike Norvell is going to stay in Tallahassee long-term.

At this point, with eight games played, it’s hard to believe FSU can do anything to fix its woeful offense. The Seminoles tried quarterback changes, played younger skill players, struggled with the offensive line and nothing worked. When something finally starts to go right, Florida State shoots itself in the foot with a bad pass, dropped ball, missed block or penalty. It feels like an episode of “Punk’d” with Ashton Kutcher every weekend spending four quarters watching this crime.

The defense played a little better, but there is still a lot to be desired. Three of the starting four defensive fronts were missing in action against Miami as Marvin Jones Jr., Patrick Payton and Joshua Farmer combined for just one tackle in 156 snaps last Saturday. That’s incredibly bad, and it’s even worse when you consider that redshirt freshman KJ Sampson recorded six tackles in just 17 snaps.

I don’t know why anything would improve against North Carolina when this team has nothing left to play for. I also thought the practice we saw on Wednesday was hands down the worst of the season. There isn’t much reason to be positive about a matchup with the Tar Heels, who are still trying to gain bowl eligibility. It could get ugly on Saturday.

2024 Season Predictions Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 38, Seminoles 13

I’ll keep this one pretty short because of two stats that stand out to me.

Number one: North Carolina ranks 29th in the nation in points per game at 32.3. Yes, you can say they faced bad teams to score those points. Surprise! FSU is a bad football team. It doesn’t matter.

Number two: The Tar Heels are averaging 3.3 sacks per game, which is seventh in the nation. They recorded 10 sacks LAST WEEK against Virginia. Yeah, Virginia is not a good team. Surprise! Florida State is worse. And don’t get me started on the Seminoles’ offensive line.

2024 Season Predictions Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 28, Seminoles 16

I don’t care how bad a team’s defense is, Florida State’s offense is worse. Omarion Hampton will likely run all over FSU’s defense, and the offense won’t be enough to overcome it. UNC’s passing game was tough, but it won’t count for the final result.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 23, Seminoles 10

Florida State has shown little development over eight weeks. Therefore, the ‘Noles have left me with little reason to believe that anything will be different in the future. The statistics are not far from this belief either. UNC has given up an average of 28.4 points per game, which ranks 96th among FBS programs. However, that average is significantly affected by a 70-point performance from James Madison earlier in the season. For the most part, UNC is a middle-of-the-road team, with team averages that rank in the 30-40 range compared to the rest of the country.

The problem here is that the state of Florida is statistically poor in every way. The rushing attack ranks 131st, the passing attack has fallen into the low 100 range, and the defense is averaging 379.4 yards and 26.4 points per game. FSU’s most glaring problem, however, is their inability to find the end zone. The ‘Noles average the nation’s second-worst scoring offense at 14.9 points per game and, as far as we know, are the only FBS team not to score more than 21 points at no time this season. Despite improvements on the defensive side of the ball, Florida State’s offense remains dead in the water. As long as that’s the case, there’s very little reason to believe the Seminoles can outscore any of their opponents, especially a UNC team that hasn’t scored less than 20 since their Week 1 game against Minnesota.

The outlook is bleak, and it’s not hard to see why. ESPN’s matchup predictor positions UNC as the slight favorite to walk away with a win at 52.9%, meaning this game is essentially a toss-up. Vegas oddsmakers share that sentiment with a spread of just (-2) in favor of the Tar Heels at the time of writing. For all intents and purposes, most believe the game is a toss-up and one the ‘Noles can win. As I stated earlier, we have seen little of the ‘Noles feature a team that is capable of scoring enough to keep the Tar Heels close, especially a Tar Heel team coming off back-to-back 30+ point performances.

I think the Seminole defense will keep things within striking distance for much of the game, but offensive lapses will keep the ‘Noles off the board and allow the Tar Heels to slowly put up points and eventually push things at hand. Unfortunately, the Florida State home crowd will have to watch yet another first out on the board for an FSU opponent. UNC will leave Tallahassee with its first victory over the ‘Noles for a Mack Brown football program in the history of the coach’s illustrious career. In the meantime, I’ll be praying for some sort of Halloween miracle on behalf of the “Noles” family.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17

There can’t be much of a case for Florida State this season. The record speaks for itself and it seems that any signings they brought in to revamp their squad were either injury driven or, for the most part, misjudged. There needs to be a spark in attack for any chance of winning this weekend.

It’s a home game and Norvell is arguably the better coach, but if nothing happens on the offensive line and in the receiver rooms, the trickle-down effect will likely provide another anemic look at a team that has been underpowered . shouters, unable to outdo their competition.

This is a tough game to predict because Florida State has a very talented defensive front and secondary that have started to take steps in the right direction, but there have been no answers at wide receiver outside of Ja’Khi Douglas and some of the newcomers on offense. Running backs Lawrance Toafili and Sam Singleton have been bright spots, but in the absence of players who were brought in, they appeared to be the only bullets in what was once a fully loaded FSU team last year.

Doom and gloom isn’t necessarily my thing, but the two biggest flags that stand out to me are Florida State’s inability to score more than 21 points all season (averaging about 14 a game) and the fact that UNC has a 1,000-yard runaway. going against a defensive line that struggled against the run.

It’s a little odd that the over/under is 50.5 and UNC is only favored by 2.5. I’ll go with UNC winning by three scores.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 35, Seminoles 14

The Florida State Seminoles’ disastrous season will be one game closer to ending, though it won’t come without a tough loss. North Carolina proved capable of scoring runs, which the Seminoles struggled with. The Seminoles will have yet another tough loss, while the youngsters are showing flashes of the future.

2024 Season Predictions Record: 5-3

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 17

It’s hard to see any hope in this team, week after week they continue to give me no sense of optimism that things are heading in the right direction this season, and although even just a few weeks ago I still had hope that the Seminoles want me to be able to get another win this weekend, I have no reason to believe that will happen. The Tar Heels are coming off their best win of the season after blowing out Virginia 41-14, and even though I think Florida State’s defense will keep the scoring down a bit, this UNC team has scored more than 34 points in five of they. their eight games, which means that even though they sit at 4-4, they still have offensive production, which is lacking in Tallahassee this year.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 31, Seminoles 13

If Florida State can’t stop the run, I just don’t see a path to victory for them. North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton is fourth in the nation in rushing yards. FSU’s defense isn’t so good in that regard.

UNC’s defense isn’t exceptional either. They are middle of the pack (nationally) stopping the run and near the bottom against the pass.

However, UNC has the luxury of being adept at what FSU struggles to defend, which of course is the run game. The FSU offense isn’t really proficient at anything.

Therefore, it looks like the Seminoles will either have to force turnovers, stop the run, hold the ball for a while and score on the minimal chances they get, or win in shootouts.

I really don’t see any of those happening because they haven’t proven they can pull off those feats against anyone all year.

2024 Season Prediction Record: 4-4

Tar Heels 27, Seminoles 17

CONSENSUS: North Carolina (8-0)

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