Here’s a potentially game-changing fact that has been completely absent from the virulent debate over Proposition 36 (the ballot measure that could undo many of Proposition 47’s criminal justice reforms): California has not gotten any softer on crime during of the reform era, but tougher. .

A person arrested in California is considerably more likely to be incarcerated today (20.2%) than in 2013 (18.5%), the year before Proposition 47 passed, or in 2010 (17, 7%), before the reforms began. This is clear from statistics from the California Department of Justice, local jails and state prisons.

Prosecutors and judges in liberal counties (generally urban areas that vote Democratic) are no more lenient either; they are more likely to charge arrestees than prosecutors and judges in conservative areas (those who consistently vote Republican). both FBI and Association of Chiefs of Major Cities (Police). the tables show that reported crimes have decreased in California’s largest cities record low levels in the first half of 2024.

So, are Californians wrong to think that many individuals “get away with crime,” especially retail theft?

Not. But everyone is wrong about why this happens.

The reason is that despite the fact that it is given more resourcesCalifornia law enforcement is solving far fewer crimes today than in the past. That means the DA (Liberal and Tory alike) have far fewer arrested people to prosecute.

While prosecutors and courts have become tougher, the police and sheriff’s agencies have become much softer on crime. Law enforcement’s “crime clearance” (solving) rate has fallen by more than half since 1990.

On average, each sworn officer arrests nearly 70 percent fewer people today than officers did 30 years ago. In 1990, the average officer arrested 33 people; in 2010, 19; in 2023, just 10. Arrests per officer have fallen, even as California’s drop in crime has left officers with hundreds of thousands fewer reported crimes annually to investigate. The reforms are not responsible for the increasing failure of the police to solve crimes. Law enforcement clearance rates began declining 20 years before California’s recent reforms began in 2010.

It is a mystery why the effectiveness of law enforcement has declined so drastically even in the face of large increases in funding and fewer crimes to solve. Californians spend $230 more per person annually on law enforcement, in constant, inflation-adjusted dollars, today than they did in 1990.

What’s not a mystery: Why the public thinks people get away with crime, especially retail shoplifting and “smack-and-grab” car burglaries. Police clearance rates have fallen from 21% of theft offenses solved in 1990 to 15% in 2013 and just 8% today.

A comparison between liberal San Francisco and conservative Kern County, whose population is only slightly larger, illustrates the confusion. In 2023, Kern County had 33% more violent crimes, including 39% more homicides, 233% more assaults, 38% more thefts, 4% more commercial burglaries, 18% more vehicle thefts and nearly three times as many gun crimes. San Francisco, for its part, had more robberies, residential burglaries, overdose deaths, and “smash and take” thefts from vehicles.

Overall, Kern County has a much worse problem with serious crime, with a particularly bad trend toward more violent crimes (up 64% over the past decade), while violent crime has declined in San Francisco (down 16% ). Furthermore, Kern reports a substantially lower retail theft rate (shoplifting plus non-residential burglary) than San Francisco.

So why is it that San Francisco is considered relentless in state and national pilots because it suffers an unheard of crime scourge due to its “liberal” prosecutors and policies, while “conservative” Kern County gets a free pass? The conservative Kern County Prosecutor’s Office is tough on crime, which seems to immunize it against criticism that it leads to higher rates of violence and retail theft.

This double standard explains why the debate over Proposition 36 is so badly skewed. The problem is not justice reforms. Kern County law enforcement agencies, which are subject to the same state laws, are twice as effective at making arrests for reported crimes as the San Francisco Police Department.