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Here are Israel’s post-election options on Iran’s dangerous nuclear program
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Here are Israel’s post-election options on Iran’s dangerous nuclear program

Israel missed a perfect opportunity to cripple Iran’s nuclear weapons program during his attack on Iran this week.

The targets actually selected, air defense and missile production facilities, were entirely legitimate. Undoubtedly, both Iran’s defensive and offensive capabilities have suffered significant damage.

But it wasn’t enough.

Under enormous pressure from the Biden administration, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has not cracked down on Iran’s worst threat: the existential danger of nuclear holocaust against Israel.

And the mullahs’ nuclear aspirations—including the threat of Tehran transferring nuclear devices to international terrorist groups—also pose serious dangers to the United States, the Gulf Arab states, and more.

Under enormous pressure from the Biden administration, Netanyahu’s government did not address Iran’s most serious threat: the existential danger of a nuclear holocaust against Israel. POOL/AFP via Getty Images

However, this threat remains in place.

This mistake should weigh heavily on the conscience of President Biden and his advisers.

Instead, they continue focusing on Gazawhich is just one front in Iran’s “Fiery” strategy against the Jewish state. Biden never understood, much less addressed, that of Iran strategic threat, not just to Israel, but to America, and our interest in keeping Iran from weapons of mass destruction.

However, since the 2023 Hamas attack, the White House has focused on the symptoms of the danger, not its cause: the regime of the ayatollahs in Tehran.

The White House focused on the symptoms, not their cause: the regime of the ayatollahs in Tehran. Reuters

But after election day, Israel will have another chance.

Biden can no longer warn Israel against meddling in US politics by decisively striking Iran’s nuclear targets. The determination of the winner may be extended, but the votes themselves will have been cast.

Of course, Israel will not be spared the vengeful post-election reprisals of an embittered and lame-duck president. Barack Obama proved this in late 2016 by refusing to veto a Security Council resolution on Israel’s borders. But at least the fear of electoral consequences in America will no longer be an obstacle.

Iran, however, will still have one vote. It could also wait to take further action against Israel after November 5.

No one knows who will win or when we will know the result. Even the winner’s policies are not obvious.

Kamala Harris is likely to be even less friendly to Israel than Biden, and Donald Trump’s position is murky. To those who think Trump will support Israel as he did in his first term, I say simply: think again. Trump’s dislike of Netanyahu is palpable, and, constitutionally barred from winning another term, the importance of American electoral politics to Trump will be much less than before. Trump came close to a meeting with Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, in 2019. He could easily do so in a second term, always looking for a deal, any deal he believes makes him looks good

Before and after satellite images of the Khojir missile foundry near Tehran after a suspected Israeli airstrike. via REUTERS

In any case, the decision is ultimately Israel’s. After failing to act against Iran’s nuclear weapons activities before November 5, it must decide whether to act later.

Some observers believe that Israel should attack Iran’s oil and gas infrastructure, which is highly vulnerable. The devastation of Iran’s Kharg Island export facilities, for example, could deprive Iran of nearly all of its international revenue. This would dramatically affect the domestic economy, but it could also turn Iran’s population, increasingly opposed to the mullahs’ regime, back to greater sympathy with its oppressors.

And the Gulf Arab states have warned, with considerable justification, that if Iran’s facilities were damaged, Tehran would likely retaliate against their oil infrastructure. This mutually assured destruction of hydrocarbon exports is obviously something the Gulf Arabs want to avoid.

Of course, striking Iran’s nuclear program would have no economic damage globally. And Iranian public opinion would not be a little wrong.

A protester exposes Netanyahu’s leadership at a demonstration in Jerusalem. Reuters

Indeed, scrapping the regime’s long-standing program to acquire nuclear weapons could be a decisive blow to its credibility in Iran. The Ayatollahs have spent countless billions on nuclear and conventional warfare capabilities, but Israel’s attack has proven to be completely inadequate. Losing the nuclear program could expose the mullahs to even more internal dissent, threatening the regime itself.

Israel bowed to Biden’s pressure after Iran’s missile and drone strikes in April. In return, Israel was subjected to Iran’s second attack in October.

While Jerusalem then fought back with force, it was not enough.

Remember this after November 5, because Israel will have to live with it: Iran’s third test could be nuclear.

John Bolton served as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump, 2018-2019, and US Ambassador to the United Nations, 2005-2006.