Week 9 will mark the final week of the first half of the 2024 NFL regular season. If you don’t already know, I’m on a journey to not only bet part or all of all 272 games, but I’m also betting 10 players each week . There are 452 total bets I will make this season with the goal of finishing in the green.

You can check out my best side and total bets in this week’s edition of “Road to 272 Bets“. In this article, I will rank the top 10 props that I will bet on.

Unfortunately, I’ve had back-to-back losing weeks with my player props, so it’s time to get back on track.

10) Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions (+126)

The Texans are now down to another receiver with Stefon Diggs out for the year with a torn ACL. That leads me to believe that CJ Stroud will be forced to lean on tight end Dalton Shultz even more than usual. Shultz is already tied for the most targets among healthy pass catchers on the Texans this season with 38. If those targets keep coming, there’s a good chance he’ll have five receptions Thursday night.

9) Nick Chubb Over 52.5 Yard Rush (-115)

Nick Chubb has seen his workload increase in the first two games since returning from injury, playing 36 percent of the snaps in his first start and then 59 percent of the snaps last week. This indicates an increased workload in Week 9 as he begins to feel more comfortable playing at game speed.

Don’t be surprised if we see some regression from the Chargers defense in the coming weeks. They have benefited from playing against some of the worst offenses the league has to offer this season, including the Raiders, Panthers, Broncos and a Saints team with Spencer Rattler at quarterback.

I’m going to bet Chubb has a breakout game on Sunday.

8) Matthew Stafford Over 241.5 passing yards (-115)

Matthew Stafford has already averaged 238.7 passing yards per game this season without top two receivers Cooper Kupper and Puka Nacua in their lineup. Now that the two are back on the field, the sky is the limit for the Rams quarterback.

Now, they face a Seahawks defense that has regressed sharply from their strong start to the season. They rank 25th in opponent dropback EPA and 32nd in opponent dropback success rate in Week 5.

7) Jalen hurts UNDER 26.5 pass attempts (-101)

The Eagles jumped out of the gates to start the season, but then changed their offensive scheme to be a run-heavy offense. They are now on a three-game winning streak while running the ball on 64.52 percent of their plays over that span, the most in the NFL over the past three weeks at nearly 11 percent.

As a result of their run-heavy scheme, Jalen Hurts averaged just 19.6 pass attempts per game in that span. Unless they find themselves losing to the Jaguars in the second half on Sunday, I expect the Eagles to continue to lean on the run game early and often.

6) Wan’Dale Robinson Touchdown +330

Wan’Dale Robinson is tied for third in the NFL in targets with 72, which is the same amount as CeeDee Lamb and more than Drake London. There is no way a player who is tied for third in targets in the NFL is listed north of 3-1 to score a touchdown.

The captains allow an average of 1.5 passing touches per game.

5) Bo Nix Over 213.5 passing yards (-115)

The bet on any quarterback he plays against the Baltimore Ravens has been an automatic bet for me every week and continues to make money for us.

The Ravens are giving up 291.4 passing yards per game while ranking 28th in opponent dropback EPA and 26th in opponent pass success rate. They also gave up 39 passing plays of 20+ yards, which is the most in the NFL with five.

Bo Nix, averaging 191.3 passing yards per game, but a negative game scenario will likely force him to throw the ball more than usual. He is coming off a 284-yard performance against the Panthers.

4) Jonathan Taylor UNDER 71.5 Rush Yards (-115)

The key to victory for the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football is stopping the run. If they can slow down Jonathan Taylor, the Colts offense won’t be as efficient as they have been at times this season.

Fortunately, they are built to do just that. They are first in opponent rush EPA, second in opponent rush success rate and third in opponent yards per carry (3.9).

3) Kyler Murray UNDER 216.5 passing yards (-111)

Kyler Murray has a tough test ahead of him in Week 9 as he and the Cardinals offense will have to face one of the best secondaries in the NFL. The Bears rank second in opponent dropback EPA and sixth in opponent dropback success rate and are giving up just 199.0 passing yards per game.

With Murray averaging 204.8 passing yards per game this season, I am confident in saying he will go under 216.5 passing yards against this elite Chicago secondary.

2) Bijan Robinson Over 73.5 Yard Rush (-111)

The Cowboys defense has been abysmal against the run this season, allowing 4.8 yards per carry and 154.6 total yards per game. They are also last in opponent rush EPA and 31st in opponent rush success rate.

Tyler Allgeier has been carried at times this season, but his usage has been disproportionate. Bijan Robinson still played 68 percent of the snaps in each of the last two weeks, including a game against the Seahawks where he racked up 103 yards on 21 attempts.

1) Amon-Ra St. Brown UNDER 6.5 Receptions (-120)

I’m surprised this number is so high. as the Lions became a No. 1 team, ranking sixth in run game percentage at 50.12%.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has had seven receptions just once in the past four games and three times all season. If you take out Week 2 against the Buccaneers, where he saw 18 targets, he’s also only seeing 5.66 targets per game. The numbers just aren’t there to justify a 6.5 reception total.

This bet will also be helped by the fact that the Packers defense ranks ninth in opponents’ completion percentage (63.46%)

Quotations are updated periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check them all Iain’s bets here!