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The worrying statistics behind Man United’s biggest problem
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The worrying statistics behind Man United’s biggest problem

The worrying statistics behind Man United's biggest problem

The worrying statistics behind Man United’s biggest problem

Interim head coach Ruud van Nistelrooy could not have asked for a better and more entertaining debut in the match Manchester United dugout

The Red Devils, who parted ways with much-criticized boss Erik ten Hag earlier in the week, secured a 5-2 win over Leicester City to progress to the quarter-finals of the EFL Cup.

This result was surprising given United’s recent struggles to score. However, Van Nistelrooy, who scored 150 goals in 219 appearances for England’s record 20-time champions, felt his side had benefited from a bit of luck that had eluded them in recent weeks.

“We scored some great goals,” he told Sky Sports. “The first one was an absolute beauty from Casemiro.

“I have to say we were a bit lucky too. Two posts and the ball falls to Casemiro’s feet, then Bruno’s (Fernandes) deflected free-kick, but it’s his first for a long time.

“So five goals, but as I said earlier, the chances against West Ham and Fenerbahce, we created so many more chances and we couldn’t finish.

“All of a sudden we had some luck on our side and that made it a great night.”

What is even more remarkable is that in his 128 games as Manchester United manager, the Ten Hag’s side scored four or more goals in a game just twice. In contrast, Van Nistelrooy’s side achieved this feat in just 45 minutes. Apart from an exception against League One side Barnsley, the Ten Hag have never got United to score five goals against a Premier League side.

Before Wednesday night’s show at Old Trafford, goals were hard to come by, which was evident in United’s last game under the Ten Hag. They suffered a 2-1 defeat at the hands of West Ham, missing five clear scoring chances.

At half-time against West Ham, they could have led 4-0. Diogo Dalot missed spectacularly, Alejandro Garnacho hit the crossbar and wasted another excellent opportunity after cutting in from the left. Meanwhile, Bruno Fernandes continued his league drought by heading Casemiro’s fine cross over the bar.

Instead, Garnacho and Fernandes (who scored twice) as well as Casemiro (who also scored twice) managed to find the net in their match against Leicester.

However, back to Premier League action, United’s finishing problems go beyond mere bad luck; it is a significant problem. Only Crystal Palace and Southampton, with six goals, have scored fewer Premier League goals than United’s total of eight this season.

The Red Devils have underperformed their expected goals performance (xG) by 6.8, with an xG of 14.8, the worst differential of any team in the 2024-25 season. Since 2022-23, only Everton, with a difference of -26, have performed more xG than Manchester United, who have a difference of -17.9 (123 goals from an xG of 140.9).

While expected goals (xG) is not the ultimate measure of a team’s performance, it does reveal some worrying trends. Remarkably, since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson, Manchester United at the Ten Hag have averaged 1.45 goals per game in the Premier League. That’s only a slight improvement on the 1.38 goals per game scored by Ralf Rangnick’s United side.

The main problem seems to be a lack of composure in the final third and accuracy in crucial moments. While we saw a potential breakthrough against Leicester City, some could argue that this was partly due to Steve Cooper fielding a weakened side, making the upcoming game against Chelsea a more significant test.