By Art Michalik

Electric vehicle adoption will increase over the next few years, driven by technological advances, the expansion of public charging stations and market dynamics that should make electric vehicles more accessible to a wider range of consumers, a recent study suggests.

An estimated 79% of car buyers will consider purchasing an electric vehicle by the end of this decade, according to Cox Automotive’s 2024 Electric Vehicle Adoption Study. Electric vehicle sales in the U.S. topped 1 million units for the first time last year, according to Kelley Blue Book sales estimates.

Here are some of the big changes coming down the road.

Better batteries

New battery technologies are at the heart of EV evolution, and some promising innovations are on the horizon. Solid-state, sodium ion, and lithium iron phosphate batteries could revolutionize EV performance and affordability.

Solid-state batteries promise several advantages over current lithium-ion technology, including faster charge times and higher energy density. These batteries replace the liquid electrolyte in traditional lithium-ion cells with a solid electrolyte, allowing for longer lifetimes.

Sodium-ion batteries use sodium instead of lithium, which is more abundant and cheaper to produce. Sodium-ion batteries have the potential to significantly reduce the cost of electric vehicles, especially in the production of budget-friendly models.

Lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries are also gaining traction as a key technology. Hyundai and Kia recently announced a program to develop LFP batteries, which use iron and phosphate as active materials. LFP batteries are lighter, safer and have a longer lifespan than lithium-ion batteries, studies suggest.

Expansion of charging infrastructure

The increasing availability of public charging stations will also drive the widespread adoption of electric vehicles, the study says. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projects that nearly 200,000 public charging stations will be operating in the United States by 2030.

Increasing public charging infrastructure, particularly the deployment of ultra-fast DC chargers, will significantly reduce charging times, making long-distance electric vehicle travel more practical and convenient, according to NREL. DC chargers can provide up to 80% charge in just 10 to 15 minutes, helping to remove one of the perceived barriers to widespread EV adoption.

In addition, home charging solutions are evolving. Wireless charging systems, which allow electric vehicles to charge by parking on a charging pad, are already being tested and could become commonplace in the next few years. Another innovation, two-way charging, will allow owners to use their electric vehicles as backup power sources for their home

Market growth, affordability and demographic changes

As EV technology advances and battery production becomes more efficient, the purchase price of a new EV will decrease. The Cox Automotive study suggests that less expensive electric vehicle models will soon enter the market, making electric vehicles more affordable for a wide range of potential buyers. Government incentives such as tax credits and rebates will continue to play a crucial role in reducing the cost of electric vehicles.

While high-income luxury buyers have dominated the EV market, the next five years will change significantly as younger, budget-conscious consumers enter the scene. With more affordable models and a growing used EV market, Generation Z and Millennials – driven by a focus on sustainability – are expected to play a significant role. The Cox Automotive study shows growing interest from these groups, with 77 percent now considering used electric vehicles, up from 62 percent just a few years ago.

Sustainability

Sustainability remains a top priority for automakers and battery manufacturers, focusing on reducing the environmental impact of electric vehicles. One solution lies in battery recycling technologies, which recover valuable materials such as lithium, cobalt and nickel from used batteries, reducing the need for new mining and minimizing waste.

Equally important are second-life applications, where batteries that have exhausted their EVs but still retain 70-80% capacity are reused for energy storage systems in homes and businesses. This approach extends battery life while supporting renewable energy capture.

In addition, car manufacturers are moving towards circular economy models, where materials from used batteries are continuously recycled and reused to make new batteries. By keeping valuable resources in circulation, this model minimizes the extraction of new raw materials and helps reduce the overall carbon footprint of electric vehicles.

Originally published: October 30, 2024 at 3:29 PM PDT