The deadline for filing nominations for the Maharashtra assembly polls ended on Tuesday. The two major alliances in the fray — the current Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi, comprising the Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) and the Shiv Sena-UBT (Uddhav Thackeray) — claimed there was a consensus among allies on all 288 places. The fact is that in nearly a dozen places, “friendly fights” seem inevitable, even as political managers work the rebels to abide by the coalition’s dharma and withdraw from the contest.

However, a scan of the candidates reveals two trends. First, the smaller parties got a rough deal with the big three parties in both alliances, incorporating almost all the seats. Second, the political landscape in Maharashtra continues to be dominated by dynasties between parties and ideologies. Both suggest that the upheaval in Maharashtra that has caused party splits and alliance reshuffles has not fundamentally altered the grid of electoral politics in the state: two national parties (BJP and Congress) and two regional groupings (NCP and Shiv Sena factions) form. discourse, and clan/kinship is central to political power.

Smaller parties can sway the outcome if the polls turn out to be a close affair, which is likely because the election is taking place in fragmented politics with none of the alliances managing to establish a narrative. Parties like Ambedkarite outfit Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (4.6% vote share in 2019 assembly elections), All India Majlis E-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Samajwadi Party, Peasants and Workers Party of India (PWPI) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (2, 3). % vote share in 2019) have the potential to get enough votes to sway the outcome.

The other major trend of political dynasties getting electoral nominations is not unique to Maharashtra, but their presence has prevented the entry of new and independent candidates. Sons, daughters, sisters, brothers, cousins, in-laws, etc. they were sent by dynasties to protect “family territories”. The Pawars and Thackerays are the best-known political dynasties, but there are many others whose second and third generations are now contesting the polls. The rural political economy continues to be rooted in the cooperative sector, which explains the dominance of families. Succession battles and clashing ambitions within dynasties led to splits within parties, but did not open the political space for new actors or ideas. Hence, there seems to be a sense of deja vu about the Maharashtra elections.